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AGENDA REPORT 2004 1006 CC REG ITEM 09C
ITEM R.G . CITY OF MOORPARK, CALIFORNIA City Council Meeting Of /P '66 -0?004 ACTION: .PO op_",v d Ze� MOORPARK CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT TO: Honorable City Council FROM: Barry K. Hogan, Community Development Director N��p Prepared By: David A. Bobardt, Planning Manager DATE: September 21, 2004 (CC Meeting of 10/10/2004) SUBJECT: Consider the Retail Market and Land Use Feasibility Study Prepared by Allan D. Kotin and Associates and CB Richard Ellis Consulting BACKGROUND On March 19, 2003, the City Council considered General Plan Amendment Pre - Screening No. 2001 -02 to change the planned land use on 4.0 acres on Los Angeles Avenue, west of Mission Bell Plaza, from commercial to residential. The Council referred this application back to the Affordable Housing /Community Development Committee (Mayor Hunter, Councilmember Mikos) and directed the preparation of a commercial demand study to be considered by the Committee prior to making a recommendation on the application. The Council wanted the study to evaluate vacant commercial land throughout the City and assess how much is needed to serve the existing and future population of Moorpark. The City collected funds for the preparation of this study from Grand Moorpark, Shea Homes, MGA Development, and North Park Village, four applicants with projects that involve changing planned land uses either from or to commercial uses. Allan D. Kotin and CB Richard Ellis Consulting were retained by the City to prepare this study. The "Retail Market and Land Use Feasibility Study," dated September 2004, was previously transmitted to the City Council. DISCUSSION The study examined demographic trends and sales leakage in Moorpark (sales within the City lower than spending by residents) along with the opportunities to capture some of the sales leakage on vacant commercial land. The downtown area was not included in this study as its retail opportunities are Honorable City Council October 6, 2004 Page 2 relatively specialized and not applicable to the rest of the City. The largest retail sales leakage category is for automobiles, reflecting fifty percent (50 %) of the retail sales dollars spent by residents outside of Moorpark. Excluding automobiles, the remaining retail leakage could support approximately 300,000 square feet of retail space for the existing population and 400,000 square feet of retail space under General Plan buildout conditions. Approximately 40 acres of land would be needed to build 400,000 square feet of single - story retail development with surface parking. The study identified and evaluated ten (10) commercial parcels as to their suitability for retail uses. Suitability in this study was based on lot size and configuration necessary to attract retail uses. Nine (9) of the parcels are vacant and one (1), currently developed with recreational vehicle storage and contractor offices, has an application on file to develop the site with residential uses. Two (2) of the vacant sites have been approved for shopping center development, one (1) has an application on file for a shopping center development, and one (1) is having an application for a retail store being prepared for filing in the near future. The five (5) sites identified as presenting the best opportunities for retail development include the vacant 11.7 -acre lot on the southwest corner of New Los Angeles Avenue and Miller Parkway (approved Nearon Enterprises commercial project), the two vacant lots (8.2 and 2.4 acres) on White Sage Road east of the SR -23 freeway (proposed Selleck commercial project on one), the vacant 7.4 -acre lot on the south side of Los Angeles Avenue behind the Alliance gas station, the vacant 6.3 -acre lot on the southwest corner of Collins Drive and Campus Park Drive (approved M &M Development commercial project), and the vacant 4.0 -acre lot on the north side of Los Angeles Avenue west of Mission Bell Plaza (proposed Grand Moorpark residential project). A decision by Council on a Pre - Screening application for this 4.0 acre lot to change the General Plan designation from General Commercial to Very High Density Residential has been deferred pending completion of this study. STAFF RECOMMENDATION Accept the findings of the Retail Market and Land Use Feasibility Study. Attachment: Retail Market and Land Use Feasibility Study (9/04) S: \Community Development \DEV PMTS \G P A \Pre- Screening \2001 \ -02 Grand Moorpark \staff reports \041006 Commercial Demand Study.doc ADKsA CBRE, RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY Prepared for: CITY OF MOORPARK CC ATTACHMENT 000080 Imi Allan D. Kotin & Associates Peal Estate Consulting for Public Private Joint Ventures 949 S. Hope Street, Suite 200, Los Angeles, CA 90015 September 3, 2004 Mr. David A. Bobardt Planning Manager City of Moorpark 7999 Moorpark Avenue Moorpark, CA 93021 Re: Retail Market & Land Use Feasibility Study — City of Moorpark Dear Mr. Bobardt: 310.820.0900 213.623.3841 Fax 213.623.4231 akotin@attglobal.net Allan D. Kotin and Associates (ADK &A) and CB Richard Ellis Consulting (CBRE Consulting) are pleased to submit this draft report documenting the findings and conclusions from our retail land use feasibility study. The task of assessing the suitability of existing commercial sites to meet a community's long -term retail demand is a complex analysis. The issues that we addressed included: ® What is the current demand from local residents by retail category? ® How does the expected population growth impact fixture demand? a is the overall demand sufficient to support a typical store size for each category? o Are the commercial sites the appropriate size to accommodate retail store formats? ® Are the commercial sites configured in a location conducive to attracting new development? This report is primarily focused on evaluating the large -scale development potential for vacant commercial land outside of the downtown area. We recognize that Downtown Moorpark is a unique area, best suited for specialty retail and restaurant uses as discussed in Section V of the report. CONCLUSION There is significant leakage of retail spending to support several hundred thousand square feet of new development requiring 40 to 50 acres of land over the next 10 -20 years. While the total commercial acreage in the aggregate, is sufficient to accommodate the potential retail development, the City of Moorpark does not have the proper inventory of large sites to effectively compete for regional retail shopping. Many of the current sites are simply too small and /or poorly located to attract retailers that have larger floor plates and need adjacency to other major retail tenants. Unless the City considers rezoning larger parcels with freeway visibility its significant retail leakage will continue in the future. Even though the current inventory of undeveloped commercial sites is poorly suited for potential large -scale retail development in the near future, a comprehensive rezoning of most of these sites to residential is not recommended. Several sites are well suited for near term retail development as population growth continues and the market matures. RUIU11 310.820.0900 213.623.3841 Aran D. 9C ®tin & Associates Fax 213.623.4231 Real Estate Consulting for Public Private Joint Ventures 949 S. Hope Street, Suite 200, Los Angeles, CA 90015 akotin @attglobal.net Other sites, while poorly located for freestanding retail development, are of significant size to be candidates for future development if the properties could be theoretically be consolidated into a major development parcel, if and when, the owners consider redevelopment of their existing commercial properties. However, there are several commercially zoned sites for which there appears little or no prospect of retail development in the foreseeable future, for which rezoning is a viable option. Our research findings, conclusions, and recommendations have been documented in the attached report and supporting tables and exhibits. it has been a privilege to assist the City of Moorpark on this important assignment. Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions. Sincerely, aak' e'eLz 'Mr Allan D. Kotin 7 Principal Enclosure Director 000 082 c,Sn/ox�nosuus s 1. 2 BACKGROUND...................................................................................................................................................... 2 APPROACH.............................................................................................. ............................................................ 2 11. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 3 SUMMARYOF FINDINGS ............. ......................................................................................................................... 3 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... —................................. 3 SITE ASSESSMENT - OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................... ............... 3 ._ FOR SPECIFIC SITES ............................................ ....................... --............................... 5 111. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..................................................................................... 6 REGIONAL OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................................... 6 PopulationGrowth ................................... .................................................................................................... 9 IncomeCharacteristics .................................. ................................................................................................ 9 HousingValues ........................ ........................................... ......................................... ................................ 9 VENTURA COUNTY ECONOMIC SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ l8 IV. SITE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................... 11 PAxCuLm --------------------------------------'ll or}ann, /(4.0 Acres) ................................................................... .................................................................. l7 Parcel3 (iV acres) ................................................................ —................................. ............................. /5 Parcel4(I0 acres) .............................. ......................... ............ ............................... .......... .................. '/6 Parcel 5(74 acres) ..................................................................................................................... ................ 76 Parcel7(2lots 6i2 acres) .......................................................................................................................... /8 ,Parcel S(2/J acres) ............................................................................................................................. .... }9 Parcel V(Z lots —8[2 acres and I4 acres) .................................. ...... ......................... ............................. 20 �Parcel /0(13 acres) ......................................................................................................... .......................... 2/ SiteAssessment Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 2J /rnplicotiooxfor8000rpzrk .-----------------------------------------2Z V. RETAIL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................... %3 MOOR-PARK RETAIL ASSESSMENT .............................................................................................. ....................... 23 Existing Retail Centers ................................................................................................................................. 23 . �^ Competitive Retail Analysis ...................................................................................... ..................... ............. J5 RETAIL LEAKAGE ANALYSIS ................................................................................................ ............................ 26 ^` Cilywide Results ...... .............................................................. ..................................... ................................ 26 Consumer Expenditure Patterns ......................... ....................................... ............................. ........ .......... 27 Future Demand Potential By Retail Category .............................................................................................. 28 STORES....... ................... ................................................................................................................................ 2D RETAIL TENANT SPACE REQUIREMENTS ------------------------------------29 VI. OFFICE DEMAND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................. 34 ADKJ1 14 W CBRE The City of Moorpark currently has only about 73 acres of undeveloped commercial land and several developers have requested the rezoning of a significant portion of that property for residential development. The City of Moorpark is concerned over hemorrhaging retail sales tax to surrounding larger cities (e.g., Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley) that have been better positioned to attract new retail businesses and restaurants. While any further reduction in the supply of commercial land may not have near -term adverse affects, it could put the City at a long -term disadvantage in capturing growth in future retail sales associated with the projected residential growth in the City. The City of Moorpark hired Allan D. Kotin & Associates ( "ADK &A ") and CBRE Consulting to perform an analysis of the City of Moorpark's long -term needs for commercial land and the potential for attracting major retail tenants based upon population projections and location of residential development. An assessment of all commercially zoned land within the City to accommodate future retail development was also performed to determine the suitability of existing vacant commercial land for future retail land uses. � . , , Real estate development is a long -term cyclical business. Planning needs to examine both current market conditions and long —term trends. The purpose of this study is to assist the City of Moorpark in determining the suitability of existing commercially zoned properties for future retail needs. In order to accomplish this objective we have addressed the following issues: • What is the current demand from local residents by type of retail category? • How does the expected population growth impact future demand? • Is the overall demand sufficient to support a typical store size for each category? • Are the commercial sites the appropriate size to accommodate retail store formats? • Are the commercial sites configured in a location conducive to attracting new development? This analysis is being performed to assure that future residential growth within the Moorpark community is met with increased retail development to serve local residents and will allow the City to capture as much local retail sales tax as possible. HAd"' D K& IN CBRE CB PUCHARCI This section of the report summarizes the key conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the future development of the commercially zoned sites within the City of Moorpark. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Our retail leakage analysis indicates that Moorpark residents are annually spending approximately $172 million or 45.4% of retail sales outside of the City. About 50 percent of this spending is for automobile purchases. If 100 percent of the remaining $86 million in spending could be captured by new retailers, it would support 300,000 square feet of new development, requiring 30 acres based on average of 10,000 square feet per acre. At full buildout of the City General Plan, the total retail spending is expected to increase by 30 percent, resulting in a maximum of $120 million of new sales potential supporting 400,000 square feet or 40 acres of land. However, it is not possible to capture exactly 100 percent of the sales potential of a suburban community, as many types of retailers will only locate in regional centers (i.e. auto dealers, department stores). Thus small communities are doomed to suffer significant leakage unless they are able to attract a major regional mall or lifestyle entertainment center that captures spending from other communities. RETAII. MARKET ANALYSIS CBRE Consulting's analysis indicates the following: The major retail tenants (e.g., Best Buy, Circuit City, Marshall's, Sports Chalet, etc.) typically require large store floor plates in excess of 50,000 square feet. Based upon the current list of sites, there are only a limited number of locations that can accommodate this requirement. Large retail tenants desire to be co- located within shopping centers to increase their customer draw to a retail shopping center. Stand -alone locations are very unlikely, unless they are clustered or immediately adjacent to community or regional shopping centers. SITE ASSESSMENT ® OVERVIEW There were 10 parcels identified by the City as commercially zoned parcels (See Figure 1 on following page). Overall, several of the identified commercial parcels are suitable in size and location for future development, but attracting the retail tenants is still problematic. Based upon CBRE Consulting's analysis, larger retailers have a strong tendency to be co- located within larger regional shopping centers with regional draws for customers. The floor plates of these retail centers tend to average 15- 20 acres for community shopping centers up to 50 -100 acres for regional shopping centers. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 3 SEPTEMBER i3boo ADK&A CBRE N A Figure 1 Vacant Commercial Zoned Parcels in Moorpark POINDEXTERAVE HIGH ST S p Dz Z `OS PNGEtsS P� > q n g x x 0 WILLIANS RANCH RD TIERRPR0ADARD Lot 1. Los Angeles A— near Shasta A- 2. Los Angeles Ave near Leta Yoncy Rd 3. Moorpark Ave north of Los Angeles Ave 4. SEC Los Angeles Ave & Park Lane 5. SWC Los Angeles Ave & Moorpark Ave 6. 312 E. Los Angeles Ave 7. SWC Spring Rd near Los Angeles Ave S. SWC Los Angeles Ave & Miller Parkway 9. HWY 23 & White Sage Rd 10. SWC Collins Dr & Campus Park Dr The City of Moorpark does not currently have the inventory of large (15 — 50 acre) retail sites to effectively compete for regional retail destination shopping. The current sites are simply too small and/ or poorly located to attract major retailers with 40,000 square foot and larger floor plates or those that desire adjacency to other major retail tenants to create a destination draw for regional shoppers. Retail is a constantly changing product, in which the types of retail centers and trends evolve over time as exhibited in the trend from enclosed regional malls to a resurgence of open -air malls and pedestrian - oriented lifestyle centers. Although there is no immediate market for a large number of the sites in Moorpark, there may be a market in the future as the population grows and new retailers seek undeveloped sites to enter the regional marketplace. One alternative to the property owners request for rezoning some sites for residential uses would be to consider a mixed -use zone with some percentage of commercial included with residential. While such development is not very common in suburban communities, there is a distinct trend for such development as single family home prices soar out of the reach for the vast majority of households. MOORPARK -RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 4 SEPTEMBER 2004 O P CAMPUS PARK DR FAIRWEATHERXING Lot 1. Los Angeles A— near Shasta A- 2. Los Angeles Ave near Leta Yoncy Rd 3. Moorpark Ave north of Los Angeles Ave 4. SEC Los Angeles Ave & Park Lane 5. SWC Los Angeles Ave & Moorpark Ave 6. 312 E. Los Angeles Ave 7. SWC Spring Rd near Los Angeles Ave S. SWC Los Angeles Ave & Miller Parkway 9. HWY 23 & White Sage Rd 10. SWC Collins Dr & Campus Park Dr The City of Moorpark does not currently have the inventory of large (15 — 50 acre) retail sites to effectively compete for regional retail destination shopping. The current sites are simply too small and/ or poorly located to attract major retailers with 40,000 square foot and larger floor plates or those that desire adjacency to other major retail tenants to create a destination draw for regional shoppers. Retail is a constantly changing product, in which the types of retail centers and trends evolve over time as exhibited in the trend from enclosed regional malls to a resurgence of open -air malls and pedestrian - oriented lifestyle centers. Although there is no immediate market for a large number of the sites in Moorpark, there may be a market in the future as the population grows and new retailers seek undeveloped sites to enter the regional marketplace. One alternative to the property owners request for rezoning some sites for residential uses would be to consider a mixed -use zone with some percentage of commercial included with residential. While such development is not very common in suburban communities, there is a distinct trend for such development as single family home prices soar out of the reach for the vast majority of households. MOORPARK -RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 4 SEPTEMBER 2004 ADKJ1 CBRE . E ".L3 Our analysis that sites 1, 5, 8, 9 and 10 has at least the minimum requisite size, location and frontage for successful retail development even if there is no manifest current market. The loss of these sites would further exacerbate the retail leakage that the City will experience over the next decade, based on current zoning and land use patterns. There are two parcels (3 and 7), which by virtue of awkward shape and limited frontage show little potential for independent or freestanding retail development. However, both parcels adjoin larger currently active retail developments which may, over time, want to expand in order to reposition themselves to survive in the face of obsolescence or capture larger market share by reconfiguring. However, without a redevelopment agency power of eminent domain, it may prove difficult, if not impossible to achieve any consolidation in light of the diverse property ownerships. Even so, the City should consider whether or not it wants to foreclose such expansion opportunities by rezoning the properties to residential use. Finally, the remaining sites, 2, 4 and 6 would seem to have little potential for either freestanding or consolidated retail development and the rezoning of these sites to alternative land uses is likely to have little if any adverse impact on the over retail growth potential for the City. However, if site 4 could be combined with site 5, it would enhance the overall retail viability. MOORPARK -RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 5 SEPTEMBER 2004 000087 ADKJ1 i;: CBRE , � L3 .S Located along the southern coast of California, Ventura County spans 1,864 square miles and is approximately an hour's drive northwest of Downtown Los Angeles. There are hundreds of miles of national and state parks and forests in Ventura County including the Los Padres National Forest. Ventura County contains a population of over 800,000 residents, accounting for 2.2 percent of California's population. One of ten cities that comprise Ventura County, the City of Moorpark is the sixth largest city with a total population in 2004 of 34,887 residents. Ventura County is part of the greater five- county Los Angeles metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which encompasses the counties of Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino metro areas, as summarized in Figure III -I below. This sprawling regional economy includes 16 million people and 6 million jobs, making it larger than every state economy except Texas and New Fork. )Figure III -1 Map of the Five - County Los Angeles MSA Region r o 4 MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 6 SEPTEMBER 2004 000088 11DKJ1 CBRE A more local map of the City of Moorpark is provided below. Figure 111-2 Map of Moorpark, California The City of Moorpark is located in eastern Ventura County near the Los Angeles County border. Moorpark is approximately a 60-minute drive from Downtown Los Angeles. The City is predominantly a suburban bedroom community in semi-rural setting that contains newer housing, good schools and a high quality of life. The City enjoys an exceptionally low crime rate and has received the honor as the safest city in Ventura County for twelve consecutive years. Demographics The City of Moorpark is located in one of the fastest growing regions in the State. The population in Moorpark expanded by 23.2 percent from 1990 to 2000, as compared to 15.6 in Ventura County and 7.4 percent for the nation during the same time period. Rapidly growing local populations present retail expansion opportunities. Table IV-1 below summarizes the economic and demographic characteristics of Moorpark and Ventura County as compared to the U.S. average. MOORPARK- RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 7 SEPTEMBER 2004 Ir", 0 0 0 Is- CBRE MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY S SEPTEMBER 2004 Table HI -1: Economic and Demographic Summary Comparison of Moorpark to Ventura County and the U.S. Average Description Moorpark, Ventura U.S. Average CA County Population 1990 25,494 669,016 248,709,873 2000 31,415 753,197 281,421,906 2004 Estimate 34,887 802,436 293,797,610 2008 Projection 36,897 855,175 305,918,071 Population growth 2000 - 2004 11.05% 6.54% 4.40% Population growth 2004 - 2008 5.76% 6.57% 4.13% Ethnicity White 74.06% 68.71% 74.47% Black 1.54% 1.97% 12.39% Asian & Pacific Islander 5.74% 5.73% 3.97% Some Other Race Alone 14.30% 18.62% 5.76% Other 4.36% 4.97% 3.41% Population Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino 71.29% 65.40% 86.83% Hispanic or Latino 28.71% 34.60% 13.17% Age _ 0 -14 26.79% 23.3% 20.97% 15 -20 10.62% 8.67% 8.55% 21 -34 16.09% 18.0% 18.79% 35 -54 34.31% 30.34% 29.37% 55 -64 7.44% 9.26% 9.58% 65-84 4.31% 9.02% 10.93% 85 and over 0.42% 1.43% 1.83% Median Age (2002) 31.79 35.02 36.11 Education High School Graduates and Above 84.50% 79.81% 69.60% Bachelors Degree and Above 33.79% 26.82% 24.63% Masters Degree and Above 11.19% 9.49% 8.89% Household Income Less than $15,000 4.51% 7.88% 14.13% $15,000 - $24,999 3.81% 7.59% 11.51% $25,000 - $34,999 5.84% 8.31% 11.69% $35,000 - $49,999 10.83% 13.65% 16.02% $50,000 - $74,999 17.67% 19.96% 19.21% $75,000 - $99,000 19.16% 15.02% 11.31% $100,000 - $149,999 24.80% 16.75% 10.18% $150,000 and over 13.39 %% 10.83% 5.95% Average Household Income (2003) $98,164 $83,263 $63,207 Median Household Income (2003) $84,577 $65,726 $46,868 Per Ca ita Income (2003) $27,966 $27,086 $24,078 Sources: Claritas, 2004; and CBRE Consulting. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY S SEPTEMBER 2004 ADK�fI CBRE C�i C-9,91CHARD EE_'__L�'S, According to the Southern California Association of Governments (SLAG) which publishes population projections for all cities and counties within the Los Angeles region, the City of Moorpark is projected to experience rapid population growth within the next twenty to twenty five years. Provided in Table III -2 is a summary of SCAG's long -term population projections for Moorpark and Ventura County. Income Characteristics Households in Moorpark enjoy an average household income that is significantly above the Ventura County average. In 2003, the median household income for Moorpark is $98,164, as compared to $83,263 for Ventura County. Housing Values C13RE Consulting researched single- family residence sales in the past four years for the Moorpark zip code and adjacent cities that surround the City. Table III -3 provides a summary of this research. Table II1 -3: Median Single - Family Resale Prices 2000 — 2003 Citv of Moorpark City / County Zip Code 2000 2001 2002 2003 Percent Increase 2000 to 2003 Moorpark 93021 $300,000 $318,000 $359,000 $435,000 45.0% Simi Valley 93063 245,000 272,000 315,000 385,000 57.1% Simi Valley 93065 247,000 265,000 315,000 385,000 55.9% Thousand Oaks 91360 305,000 326,000 369,000 449,000 47.2% Thousand Oaks 91362 430,000 434,000 505,000 625,000 45.3% Ventura County N/A $265,000 $285,000 $339,000 $400,000 50.9% Sources: Dataquick; and CBRE Consulting. As demonstrated above, median home values in the Moorpark area have increased significantly in the past four years. From 2000 to 2003, single - family median home prices increased by 45.0 percent in Moorpark, from $300,000 in 2000 to $435,000 at the end of 2003. During the same period, the average Ventura County home price grew at an even faster rate of 50.9 percent. Similarly, home prices in the adjacent cities of Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks experienced even higher home appreciation values than Moorpark with increases of 5 7. 1 percent and 47.2 percent, respectively. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 9 SEPTEMBER 2004 00009 RDK&R CBRE VENTURA COUNTY ECONOMIC SITlt✓IMEiRY The Ventura County LISA contains two military bases (Point Mugu and Port Hueneme), which serve among the largest employers in the area, in addition to tourism, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, retail and real estate. The Port of Hueneme is the fourth largest port in the state, and the only deepwater port between San Francisco and Los Angeles, resulting in international trade relationships for Ventura County companies. Ventura County's unemployment rate for 2003 (not seasonally adjusted) was 5.3 percent, as compared to 7.0 percent in Los Angeles County (1.7 percent less) and 6.7 percent for the State (1.4 percent less). The current unemployment rate for Ventura County in April 2004 (not seasonally adjusted) was 4.4 percent. Ventura County employment is concentrated in the following sectors: services (35.1 percent), retail (20.0 percent), manufacturing (11.7 percent) and public administration (7.4 percent). Detailed data on employment by sector is provided below. Employment in these four sectors accounts for 74 percent of the total workforce. Table III -4 below summarizes employment by sector. 'fable III -4: Employment by Sector — Ventura County (2004 Industry Sector Number of Businesses Number of Employees Percent of Workforce Agriculture, forestry, & fishing 806 9,185 2.5% Construction 2,670 19,245 5.3% Finance, insurance, & real estate (FIRE) 2,813 25,544 7.0% Manufacturing 1,689 42,406 11.7% Mining 80 841 0.2% Retail trade 6,249 72,480 20.0% Public administration 480 26,953 7.4% Services 14,003 127,504 35.1% Transportation, communication, utilities 878 13,621 3.7% Wholesale trade 1,635 22,999 6.3% Non - classifiable establishments 304 2,518 0.7% Total All Industries 31,607 363,296 100.0% Sources: Caritas; and CBRE Consulting. As indicted above, the economic base of the metro area's economy is dominated by the service sector, which employs over 127,000 individuals, followed by retail trade with 72,000 employees, and manufacturing with 42,000 employees. MooRPARK -RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 10 SEPTEMBER 2004 RDK&61 I .? CBRE This section of the report provides an assessment of the commercially zoned sites within the City of Moorpark with respect to their physical and locational characteristics. All information utilized for this section of the report is based upon fieldwork reconnaissance performed by CBRE Consulting, in addition to materials provided by the City of Moorpark Planning Department and other published source material. COMMERCIALLY -ZONED PARCELS According to City of Moorpark planning officials, there are 10 commercially- -zoned properties within the City, totaling approximately 73 acres. The properties are a mix of sizes and shapes, with some properties having excellent frontage along major thoroughfares in the City such as Los Angeles Ave./New Los Angeles Ave., while others are irregular in shape with little street frontage and not suited for retail purposes. Summary of the Moorpark properties is provided below (Table IV -1): Table IV -1 Inventory of Undeveloped Commercial Properties City of Moorpark # Location Size Site frontage Comments (acres) 1 Near NE comer of Los Angeles 4.0 471 feet facing Los Angeles Ave. Site located west of Ave. & Shasta Ave. Mission Bell Plaza 2 South side of Los Angeles Ave., 1.6 225 feet facing Los Angeles Right- in/Right -out near Leta Yancy Road Ave. access 3 Near NW corner of Moorpark Ave. 5.9 350 feet on Park Lane Behind Moorpark & Los Angeles Ave. (behind) Town Center 4 Near SE corner of New Los Angeles 2.0 102 feet facing Los Angeles Portion of site located Ave. & Park Lane Ave., 300 feet on Park Lane behind Union Bank 5 Corner of Los Angeles Ave. & 7.4 580 feet facing New Los Behind Gas station Moorpark Ave. (slightly west of Angeles Ave.; 250 feet on corner) Moorpark Ave. 6 312 E. Los Angeles Ave. 15.0 330 feet facing Los Angeles Site of Moose Lodge Ave. 7 Near SW corner of Spring Rd. & 8.2 383 feet facing Spring Rd.; 156 Behind Gateway Plaza Los Angeles Ave. feet on Los Angeles Ave. currently RV Storage 8 SW corner of New Los Angeles 11.7 550 feet on New Los Angeles Adjacent to Moorpark Ave. & Miller Parkway Ave.; 824 feet on Miller Pkwy. Marketplace 9 NE comer of Hwy. 23 and White 8.2 1,000 feet fronting Hwy -23; 560 Next to freeway on and Sage Road (freeway grade) feet on White Sage Road off ramps SE comer of Hwy. 23 and White 2.4 250 feet facing Hwy- 23 (above Next to freeway on and Sage Road (freeway grade) grade), 360 feet facing White off ramps Sage Road 10 SW comer of Collins Dr. & Campus 63 330 feet facing Collins Dr.; 567 Adjacent to Moorpark Park Dr. feet facing Campus Park Dr. Community College, and Freeway on -ramp Total 72.7 Sources: City of Moorpark; and CBRE Consulting. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 1 1 SEPTEMBER 2004 ADKJ1 CBRE A map outlining the locations of the commercially zoned properties ( #1 -10 as discussed on prior page) is overlaid with existing retail shopping centers in Figure IV -1. Figure IV -I Map of Commercially -Zoned Properties and Existing Retail Centers City of Moorpark Existing �- Shopping Centers A. Moorpark Marketplace oz {'ON B. Mission Bell Plaza C. Gateway Plaza D. Moorpark Plaza Oq CAMPUS PARK DR N E. Moorpark Town Center F. Mountain Meadows 2 G. Blockbuster /Starbucks Plaza 3� _. H. Whitaker Center I. Rite Aid �« J. Varsity Park Plaza - 51 `zrsk POINDEXTER AVE LOS ANGELES AVE qqZ d K O g c idERRA k&ADA to u WILLIAMS RANCH RD a HIGH ST PEACH HILL RD !RA REJADA RD ,0 The figure above shows that there is a significant concentration of commercial parcels near the existing retail centers along Los Angeles Avenue extending west from Highway 23 to Tierra Rejada. The two exceptions are parcels 9 & 10, which are more isolated, but located adjacent to freeway offramps Detailed Parcel Summary Provided below is a detailed summary of the commercially —zoned properties, including location, status, site frontage, suitability for retail, and site constraints. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 12 SEPTEMBER 2004 000094 � Parcel 1 (4.0 Acres) CBRE Location: Near NE comer of Los Angeles Ave. & Shasta Ave. Status: Application on file for General Plan Amendment pre- screen to change to residential for 66 townhouses. Site Frontage: 471 feet facing Los Angeles Ave. Site Constraints: 'There is a block wall that separates this vacant parcel from the adjacent shopping center. Suitability for Retail: Good. Frontage along Los Angeles Avenue and location adjacent to existing Mission Bell Plaza shopping center. n Parcel 1 showing concrete block wall separating site from Mission Bell Plaza MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 13 SEPTEMBER 2004 100095 ADKJ1 Parcel 2 (I.6 acres) CBRE Location: South side of Los Angeles Ave., near Leta Yancy Road Lot Size: 1.6 acres Status: Application for Jack -in- the -Box withdrawn in 2002. "Right -turn in/out only" restrictions did not work for applicant. Pre - application for office building recently submitted. Site Frontage: 225 feet facing Los Angeles Ave. Site Constraints: Small site. Ingress and egress issues; Right turn only access to site Suitability for Retail: Poor (may be suited for freestanding office) 14 n Mo©RPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILiTY STUDY 14 SEPTEMBER 2004 9G ADKJ1 CBRE Parcel 3 (5.9 acres) Location: Near NW corner of Moorpark Ave. & Los Angeles Ave. (behind the Moorpark Town Center shopping center, across the street from Community Christian Church) Status: General Plan Amendment — Pre - screening application recently filed for 54 -96 small -lot homes. Site Frontage: 350 feet on Park Lane Site Constraints: Site is located behind the Moorpark Town Center shopping center and faces a block wall, alleyway and truck access to the shopping center. Suitability for Retail: Poor in the near to intermediate term due to limited street frontage. Possible opportunity if consolidated with Moorpark Town Center, but difficult due to need to redesign existing center. Provided above are photographs of Parcel 3 taken from Moorpark Avenue (with Moorpark Town Center to the left of the site): MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 115 SEP T E 13ER 2004 �'}� 00009 RDKJ1 Parcel 4 (2.0 acres) CBRE Location: Southside of Los Angeles Ave. at Park Lane Status: No current applications Site Frontage: 105 feet facing Los Angeles Ave., 300 feet facing Park Lane Site Constraints: Narrow and deep lot. Suitability for Retail: Poor in near term since portion of the site is located behind existing property. Since the site is adjacent to larger vacant commercial lot it could be combined and would then be very good for retail with excellent access on 3 sides. Parcel 5 (704 acres) Location: Near SW comer of Los Angeles Ave. & Moorpark Ave. Status: Inquiries have been received for both commercial and residential development of this site. Site Frontage: 580 feet facing Los Angeles Ave.; 250 feet on Moorpark Ave. Site Constraints: None Suitability for Retail: Good with adequate frontage and depth - across from Moorpark Town Center. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 16 SEPTEMBER 2004 000098 ADKJ1 Parcel S (I5 acres) CBRE CB ELLIS Location: 312 E. Los Angeles Ave. (southern side of Los Angeles Avenue near Spring Rd.) Status: Application on file for General Plan Amendment to change to residential for 102 duplex and detached condominiums. Considered by Planning Commission in March 2004. City Council hearing has not yet been scheduled. Site EroMne: 330 feet facing Los Angeles Ave. Site Constraints: Mixed. Not a corner lot. Irregular parcel. Limited frontage on Los Angeles Avenue. The site is very long (deep) and not wide. Suitability for Retail: Poor. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 17 SEPTEMBER le 0 0 9 11DKJ1 Parcel 7 (2 lots - 8.2 acres) CB-RE Location: Near SW corner of Spring Rd. & Los Angeles Ave. These lots are located behind the Gateway Plaza on the comer. A small portion of the site has frontage along Los Angeles Avenue, and along Spring Road. Site frontage: 383 feet facing Spring Rd.; 156 feet on Los Angeles Ave. Status: No current applications. Currently used for RV storage, nail salon and miscellaneous service uses. A General Plan Amendment pre- screen to convert the site to residential was approved in 20019 allowing the filing of a General Plan Amendment application to be considered by the Planning Commission and City Council. Site Constraints: Not a corner lot. Irregular parcel with limited frontage on Los Angeles Avenue. The site is very deep and not wide. Suitability for Retail: Poor due to irregular shape and lack of street frontage /visibility. Possible opportunity if corner center is demolished and consolidated. �w MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 18 SEPTEMBER 2004 Parcel 8 (11.7 acres) am Location: SW comer of New Los Angeles Ave. & Miller Parkway (adjacent to Moorpark Marketplace) Status: Application filed February 2004 for 135,000 square foot retail center. Site Frontage: 550 feet on New Los Angeles Ave.; 824 feet on Miller Pkwy. Site Constraints: Significant frontage along Los Angeles Avenue. Site is wide enough to potentially accommodate retail anchor and parking. Suitability for Retail: Excellent. O -t. E t cw_• r Q L ' ��.� S, d e. .�,.:. IF } Provided above is a photograph of Parcel 8 taken from the Moorpark Marketplace. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 19 SEPTEMBER 2004 0G0IL 0 1 1IDKcA CBRE Parcel 9 (2 lots — 8.2 acres and 2.4 acres) Location: NE and SE comer of Hwy. 23 and White Sage Road (located above grade). Status: No current applications. City would like to see hotel use on larger lot. Site Frontage: 1,250 feet fronting Hwy-23; 560 feet on White Sage Road. Both lots have freeway visibility from Highway 23. Site Constraints: Two separate lots divided by White Sage Road (dead-end street). Suitability for Retail: Good visibility from Highway 23. rS �u NU OC LIX e Ian MG F M WV_ U Provided above is a photograph of Parcel 9 (both lots). These lots are located east of Highway 23, directly adjacent to the northbound Los Angeles Avenue freeway onramp and off-ramp. MOOREARX - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 20 SEPTEMBER 2004 0 0 0102 RDKd1 Parcel 10 (6.3 acres) CBi,� �[ __; Location: Southwestern corner of Campus Park Road and Collins Dr. (near Moorpark Community College campus) Status: Development of 72,000 square feet of retail center approved, including gas station and fast food drive - through+ restaurant. Applicant is currently seeking commitments from tenants. Site Frontage: 330 feet facing Collins Dr.; 560 feet facing Campus Park Dr. Site is adjacent to Freeway on -ramp. Site Constraints: Not large enough to accommodate a grocery- anchored community shopping center Suitability for Retail: Very good opportunity for neighborhood and student serving retail. Corner lot within close proximity to residential subdivisions and college campus. Provided above is a photograph of parcel 10 looking southeast towards the freeway onramp: MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 21 SEPTEMBER 2004 000103 Site Assessment Conclusions The following sites present the best opportunities for major retail development in Moorpark: • Parcel 8 (adjacent to the Moorpark Marketplace with 11.7 acres), • Parcel 9 (freeway visibility and adjacent to on -ramp and off -ramp for Hwy. 23. There are two lots: The larger lot size is 8.2 acres, while the smaller lot is 2.4 acres), • Parcel 5 (7.4 acres located along Los Angeles Avenue), or 9.4 acres if combined with Parcel 4. • Parcel 10 (63 acres at SR118 and Campus Park Drive) • Parcel 1 (4 acres adjacent to Mission Bell Plaza). The following sites have good physical characteristics, but are irregular in shape and have access and visibility problems due to location behind existing commercial development. • Parcel 7 (too little street frontage, irregularly shaped, existing RV storage) — May be suitable for redevelopment if two -story commercial center is demolished and site is consolidated. • Parcel 3 (no major street frontage, located behind the existing Moorpark Town Center. The following sites have little or no potential for retail development in the foreseeable future: • Parcel 2 (too small, ingress and egress issues) • Parcel 4 (too narrow, unless joined together with Parcel 5) • Parcel 6 (too little street frontage, very deep and irregularly shaped) Implications for Moorpark Most retailers have a strong tendency to be co- located with other large retailers in large shopping centers that act as a regional draw. These retail centers tend to average 15 -20 acres for community shopping centers up to 50 -100 acres for regional retail centers. At present, the City of Moorpark does not possess a sufficient inventory of retail sites to effectively compete for regional retail destination shopping. The current sites are simply too small and inadequate to attract retailers that typically require larger floor plates and /or adjacency to additional retail tenants to create a draw for shoppers. While few of the retail sites provide opportunities for development now, the City may want to hold on to some of the lots for future retail uses, rather than converting them to residential. The City may also want to consider designating areas that are targeted for future master - planned residential growth to include more land for commercial development. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 22 SEPTEMBER 200�4 ?� 0:104 CBRE To determine the amount of commercial land needed within the City of Moorpark to accommodate likely future retail development, our analysis included the following tasks: Assessment of existing retail shopping centers within Moorpark; Analysis of the degree to which resident retail sales leakage in Moorpark; ® Summary of retail tenant space requirements; and estimate annual sales. Existing Retail Centers CBRE Consulting inventoried existing major retail shopping centers within the City of Moorpark. There are approximately a dozen retail shopping centers in the City of Moorpark, with an estimated 1,100,000 square feet of commercial space. A visual inspection found only two significant vacant spaces, the former K -mart building in Mission Bell Plaza and a former Sav -on store at Mountain Meadows. There are no regional shopping centers in the City. The largest and newest shopping center within the City of Moorpark is the Moorpark Marketplace, a community shopping center that opened in the Pall of 2003 and comprises 350,000 square feet including 'Target, Kohl's, TJ Maxx, Michael's and Lynens- N- Things. This center is located off the New Los Angeles Ave. Highway 23 off -ramp. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 23 SEPTEMBER 2004 000105 Table V -1: Samar ®f C ®mmunity and Neighb ®rhood Retail Shopping Address year GLA Property Name Built (so. ft.) Stores Centers —City ®f 1�Ioorpark Gccu- panty Anchors 1. Moorpark Marketplace Miller Pkwy/ 2003 357,621 29 100% Target, Kohl's, TJMaxx, New L.A. Av. Michaels, Linens -N- Things 2. Mission Bell Plaza L.A. Av./ Park 1993 221,820 13 80% Aibertson's, Maverick's Lane Movies (3), K -Mart (vacant) 3. Moorpark Town Center L.A. Av./ 1984 126,000 N/A 98% Ralph's, Long's Drug Moorpark Av. 4. Mountain Meadows Mt. Trail/ Tierra N/A 100,000 18 85% Vons Rej ada 5. Moorpark Plaza L.A. Av./ 1987 55,000 31 100% None Moorpark Rd. 6. Gateway Plaza L.A. Av./ 1990 30,000 26 100% None Spring Rd. 7. Varsity Park Plaza 6251 Princeton N/A 22,000 - 100% None 8. Blockbuster Plaza New L.A. Av./ 2002 N/A 6 100% Blockbuster Video Science Dr. 9. Dex Moor Center Poindexter Rd/ N/A N/A 10 50% None McFadden Av. 10. Village Retail Auto L.A. Av./ N/A N/A 15 100% None Center Liberty Bell Rd. 11. Moorpark Center Moorpark St./ N/A N/A 6 100% None _ High St. _ Sources: NRB Shopping Center Directory, 2003; CBRE Consulting. There are no regional shopping centers in the City. The largest and newest shopping center within the City of Moorpark is the Moorpark Marketplace, a community shopping center that opened in the Pall of 2003 and comprises 350,000 square feet including 'Target, Kohl's, TJ Maxx, Michael's and Lynens- N- Things. This center is located off the New Los Angeles Ave. Highway 23 off -ramp. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 23 SEPTEMBER 2004 000105 11DKJ1 CBRE The three major neighborhood shopping centers in Moorpark are the Moorpark Town Center and Mission Bell Plaza which both contain full service grocery and drug stores. These centers are located adjacent to each other on the north side of Los Angeles Avenue near Moorpark Avenue. The third is the Mountain Meadows neighborhood shopping center with Von's as the anchor tenant. Provided below in Figure V -1 is a map summarizing the locations of the major community and neighborhood retail shopping centers in Moorpark. Other shopping centers are shown in Figure 1V -1. Figure V -1 Map of Major Community and Neighborhood Retail Shopping Centers City of Moorpark Sites 1. Moorpark Marketplace 2. Mission Bell Plaza 3. Moorpark Town Center HIGH ST 4. Mountain Meadows Plaza POINDEXTER AVE 0 Z � a j Q N Y O LOS ANGELES AVE :E - U O m S'OR/,vG� PEACH HILL RD D TIERRA REIADA RD ii WILLIAMS RANCH RD As seen, most of the major community and neighborhood shopping centers in the City of Moorpark are concentrated along Los Angeles Avenue/New Los Angeles Avenue. Based upon fieldwork performed for the project, the following observation were made regarding retail shopping centers: ® The Moorpark Marketplace serves as the leading power center within the Moorpark community. The 29 -acre, 350,000 square foot development is 100 percent occupied and is a highly active shopping center. Two additional pad spaces will be developed with restaurants in the near future. MOORPAR:K - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 24 SEPTEMBER 2004 000:1016 11DKJ1 CBRE 0 The Moorpark Town Center is the area's leading neighborhood center with a Ralph's supermarket, Long's Drugs and numerous in line shops and restaurants. ® This Mission Bell Plaza contains a vacant anchor tenant space (formerly K -Mart) of over 100,000 sq. ft. Mission Hell Plaza also has a free - standing, 3- stadium movie theater and health club /sports complex. Competitive Retail Analysis CBRE Consulting also inventoried the larger competitive retail shopping centers located in the cities of Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley. Provided below is a summary of the shopping center size, anchor tenants and other related characteristics. Thousand Oaks area has dominated the regional retail landscape, with the only regional mail, The Oaks as well as several retail power centers located along the Moorpark Road corridor adjacent to The Oaks mall. The four shopping centers shown above in Table V -2 comprise over 2 million square feet of retail development. The City of Thousand Oaks also boasts a very significant auto mall with over MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STL;DY 25 SEPTEMBER 21704 000:107 Table V -2: Summary of Major Shopping Centers Property Name Acres GLA GLA/Acre Stores Anchors (sq. ft.) Ratio Thousand Oaks The Oaks 90 1,086,085 0.28 133 Macy's, Robinson -May, JC Penney, Theater Janss Marketplace 27 456,000 0.39 55 Gold's Gym, Mervyn's, Marshall's, Linens N Things, Toys -R -Us, Mann Theaters The Promenade at 22 210,000 0.22 30 Barnes & Noble, Bristol Farms, Mann Theaters, Westlake Cost Plus World Market Best Buy Plaza 10 119,150 0.27 5 Best Buy, Office Max, Ross Dress for Less Simi Valley Simi at the Plaza 14 350,000 0.57 15 Wal -Mart, Home Depot, Office Depot Mountain Gate Plaza 25 282,163 0.26 60 Bally's Total Fitness, Big 5 Sporting Goods, Rite Aid Pharmacy Sycamore Square 20 142,320 0.16 25 Mervyn, Ross Dress For Less, Sav -On Drugs Calabasas Calabasas Commons 22 105,000 0.11 33 Edward's Cinema., Ralph's Parkway Calabasas N/A 89,074 N/A 29 Babies R Us, Ralph's Newbury Park Newbury Gateway 12 200,000 0.38 16 Kohl's, Theater (TBD) Newbury Park Place N/A 109,000 N/A 14 Staples, Albertson's, Longs Drug Camarillo Camarillo Town Center 40 503,510 0.29 28 Target, Home Depot, Oshmans Sports, Petco, Staples, Ross, Linens N Things Camarillo Outlets 51 453,300 0.20 114 Off 5th Saks Fifth Avenue, Nike Store Camarillo Village 24 248,061 0.24 34 Albertsons, Home Furniture Outlet, Rite -Aid Central Plaza 20 218,787 0.25 26 Big K -Mart, Von's, Long Drug Carmen Plaza 17 129,264 0.17 26 24 -hr Fitness, Michaels, Big Lots, Sav -On Sources: NRB Shopping Center Directory, 2003; CBRE Consulting. N/A refers to not available. Thousand Oaks area has dominated the regional retail landscape, with the only regional mail, The Oaks as well as several retail power centers located along the Moorpark Road corridor adjacent to The Oaks mall. The four shopping centers shown above in Table V -2 comprise over 2 million square feet of retail development. The City of Thousand Oaks also boasts a very significant auto mall with over MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STL;DY 25 SEPTEMBER 21704 000:107 ADKsA CBRE 30 independent automobile dealerships along !auto Mall Drive which fronts Highway 101, near the interchange with Highway 23, which runs to Moorpark. The Simi Valley area also contains a significant concentration of retail shopping centers. It has a new regional shopping center being developed by Forest City, a $300 million, 800,000 square foot mixed - use open -air shopping mall, north of State Highway 118 between Erringer Road and First Street. The 120 -acre lifestyle center will include anchor tenants Macy's and Robinsons -May, plus 500 residential apartments to be built on the shopping center periphery. The development also calls for possible offices and a hotel. The development will be Ventura County's third largest regional shopping mall. There is a sizeable auto sales concentration on First Street as well. The above data also demonstrates that retail developers are seeking sites of at least 10 acres and preferably 20 to 50 acres or more for new shopping centers. Very few major retailers will have stand- alone stores, unless they are located immediately adjacent to a regional mall or power center. PAIL LEAKAGE ANALYSIS CBRE Consulting utilizes a proprietary model that estimates retail spending potential for a market area (usually a city, grouping of cities, or county) based upon population, income, and consumer spending patterns. The model then determines the extent to which a market area is or is not capturing the sales potential based upon taxable sales data collected and published by the State of California Board of Equalization or city tax consultants. In order to determine the anticipated pattern of retail spending for a market area, the model uses a benchmarked control area. For this study, the control area is Ventura County. The purpose of the control area is to control for characteristics unique to individual markets that might artificially inflate or deflate the calculated spending pattern of area residents. Retail categories in which spending is not fully captured are called "leakage" categories, while retail categories in which more sales are captured than are generated by residents are called "attraction" categories. Generally, attraction categories signal particular strengths of a retail market while leakage categories signal particular weaknesses. The analysis is conducted for all retail sales in an area, including taxable and nontaxable. For the purposes of this study, CBRE Consulting conducted a retail leakage analysis for the City of Moorpark, based upon annual taxable sales for 2003 provided by the HILL Companies, the last year for which data are publicly available. Citywide Results The analysis indicates that 45.4 percent of City of Moorpark resident retail sales leak out of Moorpark. Moorpark's retail leakage occurred in seven out of nine major retail categories. In 2003 dollars, Moorpark's leakage is estimated at $173.2 million, 50 percent of which is automobile sales and service. Excluding auto dealership, the remaining retail category leakage could support approximately 300,000 square feet of space (@ $300 /sf). The amount and percentage of resident sales leakage in Moorpark are summarized in Table V -3. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 26 SEPTEMBER 2004 EXHIBIT i RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE ANALYSIS (1) CITY OF MOORPARK 2003 PER CAPITA (2) TOTAL Ventura County - Moorpark Moorpark Moorpark Moorpark Attraction/ Leakage as % Type of Retailer _Average Sales Spending Potential Actual Sales Spending Sales _,(Leakage) of Spending Apparel stores $458 $525 $629 $17,586,670 $21,081,600 $3,494,930 19.9% General merchandise stores (3) $1,487 $1,677 $2,141 $56,229,982 $71,780,571 $15,550,590 27.7% Food stores (4) $1,675 $1,761 $1,483 $59,024,276 $49,724,667 ($9,299,610) -15.8% Eating and drinking places $1,002 $1,128 $755 $37,801,129 $25,314,400 ($12,486,729) -33.0% Home furnishings & appliances $397 $449 $90 $15,044,590 $3,022,400 ($12,022,190) -79.9% Building materials (5) $909 $1,021 $87 $34,226,812 $2,926,800 ($31,300,012) - 91.4/0 Auto dealers and auto supplies $2,364 $2,649 $84 $88,797,138 $2,829,000 ($85,968,138) -96.8% Service stations $606 $642 $483 $21,508,024 $16,176,200 ($5,331,824) -24.8% Other retail stores (6) $1,36 9 $1,544 $474 $51,763,136 $15.896,000 ($35,867,136) -69.3% Totals $10,269 $11,394 $6,227 1 $381,981,757 $208,751,638 ($173,230,119) -45.4% Total Sales Leakage ($173,230,119) Notes: (1) All figures are expressed in constant 2003 dollars. (2) Based on estimated population of 33,525 in 2003. Data source is Claritas. (3) Includes general merchandise and drug stores. Drug stores are assumed to comprise I 1 percent of total general merchandise sales based upon CB Richard Ellis Consulting's analysis of southern California -wide averages. Taxable transactions for drug stores have been adjusted by 0.70, to account for non - taxable sales. (4) Taxable transactions for grocery stores have been adjusted by 0.30, to account for non - taxable sales. (5) Building materials group includes hardware stores, plumbing and electrical supplies, paint and wallpaper products, glass stores, farm implement dealers, and lumber. (6) Other retail stores includes packaged liquor stores, gifts, art goods and novelties, sporting goods, florists, photographic equipment and supplies, musical instruments, stationary and books, jewelry, office and school supplies, second -hand merchandise, farm and garden supply stores, mobile homes /trailers and campers, boat and motorcycle dealers, and miscellaneous other retail stores. Sources: State Board of Equalization "Taxable Sales in California- 2002 "; Claritas; and CB Richard Ellis Consulting. N: \Shared \Sedway \Proposals & Jobs 2003\Moorpark 1103036 \[Moo ark Leakage - HDL venhua county only.xls]Ex 1 JB 2- Sep -04 tzt F)IMj; ryt G} FJ K tA Table V -3 Moorpark Detail Leakage Analysis, 2003 In millions Cc� >> £ Consumer Expenditure Patterns In order to determine Moorpark's potential to attract certain types of specialty retailers, CBRE Consulting utilized the 2002 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Data was analyzed for an average household size of 4 persons and average household income of over $70,000 per year (highest the BLS tracks). A summary of household annual expenditures from the survey are provided below, together with our estimated spending for Moorpark. Average Annual Expenditures (Leakage) /Attraction Type of Retailer Amount As a Percent of Spending General Merchandise Stores $15.6 27.7% Apparel Stores 3.5 19.9% Service Stations (5.3) -24.8% Food Stores (9.3) -15.8% Dome Furnishings and Appliances (12.0) -79.9% Eating and Drinking Places (12.5) -33.0% Building Materials (31.3) -91.4% Other Retail Stores' (35.9) -693% Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies (85.9) -96.8% Total ($173.2) -45.4% I . This category includes sporting goods, office, school supplies, stationary and books, jewelry, and other miscellaneous retailers. Sources: State of California Board of Equalization; HDL Companies; Southern California Association of Governments; Claritas. Consumer Expenditure Patterns In order to determine Moorpark's potential to attract certain types of specialty retailers, CBRE Consulting utilized the 2002 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Data was analyzed for an average household size of 4 persons and average household income of over $70,000 per year (highest the BLS tracks). A summary of household annual expenditures from the survey are provided below, together with our estimated spending for Moorpark. Average Annual Expenditures Food $9,464 12.2% $8,493 Food at home 5,057 6.5% 4,538 Food away from home 4,407 5.7% 3,955 Alcoholic beverages 456 0.6% 409 Housing 24,050 31.1% 21,583 Apparel and services 3,948 5.1% 3,453 Transportation 13,607 17.6% 12,211 Healthcare 2,784 3.6% 2,498 Entertainment 4,638 6.0% 4,162 Personal care products and services 817 1.1% 733 Reading 335 0.4% 301 Education 1,749 2.3% 1,750 Tobacco products 246 0.3% 221 Miscellaneous 1,516 2.0% 1,360 Cash contributions 1,974 2.6% 1,772 Personal insurance and pensions 11,751 15.2% 10,546 Total $77,335 100.0% $69,402 Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2002 and 1998/99; and CBRE . MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 27 SEPTEMBER 2004 flF3KJ1 CBRE C B F-1 i C " All R E), F LIL,; tS Future Demand Potential By Retail Category At full buildout the City of Moorpark is expected to have a population of 43,874 residents by the year 2020, according to the City of Moorpark estimates. Applying the average per capita spending in Ventura County, CBRE Consulting estimates the potential demand for the various retail categories. This standard was then applied to Moorpark population figures to arrive at the retail sales capacity by sector. This is converted into space requirement using retail sectors' sales per square foot standards. 'Fable V -` profiles the sector retail sales estimates and respective building area demand. Table V -5: Retail Sector Estimates for Sales and Space Demand in 2025 City of Moorpark County Per Capita 2003 City 2025 City 2025 Detail Retail Sector Total Sales Sales Potential Sales Estimate Maximum STORES (000's) ($ /person) (000'x) (000`s) SE Auto Dealers, New $1,780,058 $2,247 $75,324 $94,517 NA Auto Dealers, Used 114,877 145 4,861 6,100 NA Auto Parts 97,386 123 4,121 5,171 NA Boat, Bike. Plane 60,191 76 2,547 3,196 10,653 Building Materials 516,766 652 21,867 27,439 91,463 Drug Stores 129,277 163 5,470 6,864 32,700 Family Apparel 190,327 240 8,054 10,106 21,469 Farm Impl. Dealers 84,115 106 3,559 4,466 14,888 Farm/Garden Supply 58,191 73 2,462 3,090 10,299 Florists 22,105 28 935 1,174 6,309 General Merchandise 1,051,324 1,327 44,487 55,823 169,535 Gift, Art & Novelty 42,617 54 1,803 2,263 8,852 Grocery 407,100 514 17,225 21,615 125,000 Hardware 36,750 46 1,555 1,951 17,509 Home Furnishing 247,602 313 10,477 13,147 40,109 House Appliance 83,351 105 3,527 4,426 11,532 Jewelry 41,789 53 1,768 2,219 7,218 Liquor Stores 42,637 54 1,804 2,264 7,047 Men's Apparel 36,763 46 1,556 1,952 4,629 Mobile Homes, Trailers 20,578 26 871 1,093 3,642 Musicallnstrmnts. 34,641 44 1,466 1,839 6,131 Office /School Supply 265,006 334 11,214 14,071 66,139 Other Stores 355,917 449 15,061 18,898 41,497 Paint, Glass, Wallpaper 32,677 41 1,383 1,735 6,001 Photographic Eqpmt. 7,119 9 301 378 3,758 Plumbing & Electrical 90,760 115 3,841 4,819 9,387 Restaurant/Bar- Liquor 444,437 561 18,807 23,600 40,207 Restaurants-No Liquor 389,289 491 16,473 20,670 60,230 Service Stations 503,579 636 21,309 26,739 NA Shoe Stores 55,722 70 2,358 2,959 10,587 Sporting Goods 93,971 119 3,976 4,990 15,760 Stationery & Book 74,182 94 3,139 3,939 13,339 Women's Apparel 98,525 124 4,169 5,231 12,804 Total Retail Sales $7,523,740 $9,497 $318,372 $399,492 804,967 Source: California Retail Survey, 2004; and CBRB Consulting MooRPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 28 SEPTEMBER 2004 011-� CBRE The future retail space demand by sector provides some interesting insights. The building materials sector indicates future demand of about 91,000 sq. ft. Although the City presently does not have a store catering to it, this demand is not large enough for L,owe's or home Depot to enter the market unless it was part of a large regional center. A more likely fit would be a Do -It Center or Orchard Supply Hardware Store, which each require about 50,000 sq. ft. The office supply category appears to be ripe for a Staples or Office Depot store, with indicated support for up to 60,000 square feet, however the Countywide averages used to calculate this category may not be directly applicable, since these stores serve primarily business clients, which are less prevalent in Moorpark than the more urban areas. The general merchandise section indicates total future demand of 170,000 sq. ft., which should be satisfied by the new Target store. Also, the existing drugstores in the City are enough to serve the 32,700 sq. ft. demand for drugstores /pharmacy retail by 2025. Similarly, the existing grocery stores appear sufficient to serve future demand for about 125,000 sq. ft. shown in the grocery sector. A visual reconnaissance of the retail facilities in Moorpark also revealed a scarcity of fine dinner restaurants. The market potential appears favorable for that type of development as indicated by the 40,000 sq. ft. demand in year 2025. Other retail categories such as sporting goods and book stores indicate support for a 10,000 to 15,000 square foot store. The local space demand does not appear to be enough to attract a large Sportmart /Sports Chalet or Border's /Barnes & Noble respectively. Smaller independent chains catering this market may come in to capture local and some regional demand. Overall, the nearby cities of Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley manage to capture a large chunk of disposable income from the residents of Moorpark, owing to regional shopping centers with better retail options. The presence of such centers in the vicinity handicaps Moorpark and its future retail developments, as such businesses tend to congregate near mall locations. TAIL TENANT SPACE REQUIREMENTS CBRE Consulting researched retail tenant requirements on behalf of several potential retail tenants utilizing the Retail Tenant Directory, to better understand the physical and economic characteristics of potential retail tenants for the City of Moorpark. Several data categories were researched including preferred gross leaseable area (GLA) and locations considered. The following four retail tenant categories were researched: Grocery / Supermarket Drug Store ® Medium -to -small Anchor Retailers Medium -to -small Retail /Restaurants MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 29 SEPTEMBER 2004 0001..2 Fil Grocery/ supermarkets CBRE 'fable V -6 on the following page provides a summary of typical grocery / supermarket retail requirements. We note that the City already has an Albertson's, Ralph's, and a Von's supermarket. Table V -6 Retail Tenant Requirements - Grocery / Sunermarkets Total Preferred Sales in 2003 Avg. Sales Percent in Tenant Stores GLA (Sq. Ft.) (in million $) per Store Centers Albertson's 2,305 46,200 - 49,200 $35,436 $15,370,000 60-79% Ralph's Grocery 409 22,000 - 58,000 5,487 13,420,000 60-79% Von's 1,817 30,000 - 78,000 35,553 19,570,000 40-59% Sources: 2003 Retail Tenant Directory; Securities & Exchanges Commission; and CBRE Consulting. As shown above, the large traditional supermarket tenants typically require buildings ranging from 22,000 to 58,000 square feet. In terms of location considerations, most supermarkets will consider the following centers: Power center, community center and neighborhood centers. Drug stores CBRE Consulting researched retail tenant requirements for a select group of drug -store retailers. The findings from this research are provided below in 'fable V -7. The City presently has a Rite Aid, Longs and a Sav -4n inside the Albertson's store. Drug store anchors typically require a minimum 10,000 square feet (the exception is Walgreen's drive - thru) to 25,000 square feet for new store locations. The majority of drug -store anchors fall within the range of 10,000 - 17,000 square feet. In terms of location, most drug stores will consider locating in community centers, neighborhood centers, as well as freestanding stores. Sav - ®n Drug prefers only freestanding locations. _Hedium -To -Large Anchor Retailers Retail tenant requirements for medium -to -large anchor retailers were researched for their suitability and applicability for any new retail development occurring within the City of Moorpark. A summary of the information collected is shown in 'fable V -8. Presently, the city has a Kohl's and a Target store. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 30 SEPTEMBER 2004 i Table V -7 Retail Tenant Requirements - Dru Stores Total Preferred GLA Sales in 2003 Avg. Sales Percent in Tenant Stores (Sq. Ft.) (in million $) per Store Centers / Malls Walgreen's 4,224 I 2,000 - 15,000 $32,505 $7,700,000 20-39% Rite Aid 3,382 10,000 - 17,000 16,600 4,910,000 40-59% Eckerd 2,800 11,000- 13,500 15,137 5,410,000 40 -59% Sav - ®n Drug 740 17,000 N/A N/A 0-19% Longs Drugs 470 15,000 - 25,000 4,526 9,630,000 80 -100% Sources: 2003 Retail Tenant Directory; Securities & Exchanges Commission; and CBRE Consulting. Drug store anchors typically require a minimum 10,000 square feet (the exception is Walgreen's drive - thru) to 25,000 square feet for new store locations. The majority of drug -store anchors fall within the range of 10,000 - 17,000 square feet. In terms of location, most drug stores will consider locating in community centers, neighborhood centers, as well as freestanding stores. Sav - ®n Drug prefers only freestanding locations. _Hedium -To -Large Anchor Retailers Retail tenant requirements for medium -to -large anchor retailers were researched for their suitability and applicability for any new retail development occurring within the City of Moorpark. A summary of the information collected is shown in 'fable V -8. Presently, the city has a Kohl's and a Target store. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 30 SEPTEMBER 2004 i HOAmKsfI CBRE =,AR,E- E' _4 _iF � Table V -8 Retail Tenant Requirements - Medium to Small Anchor Retailers As demonstrated above, the medium -to -small national anchor retailers prefer new store location to have a preferred GLA ranging from a minimum of 25,000 square feet for tenants such as Staples, Border's, and Ross Dress for Less to as high as 150,000 to 174,000 square feet for tenants such as Lowe's Home Improvement, Home Depot or Costco. The majority of retailers prefer locations that are within a retail center or mall. The exceptions are larger and well -known brand stores such as Wal- Mart and Target, in addition to home improvement warehouses such as Home Depot and Lowe's, which may consider either free - standing locations or as part of a retail center or mall. The implication of this analysis to Moorpark is that to attract many of the above retailers, a minimum of 15 to 20 acres must be available in a desirable location. It is interesting to note that a typical Do -It Center or Orchard Supply Hardware is less than one -half the size of its competitors Home Depot and Lowe's, and may be a viable tenant for a 5 to 10 -acre site on Los Angeles Ave. Medium -To -Small IRetaiLlRestaurants In addition to medium -to -large retail anchors, retail tenant requirements for medium -to -small restaurants were researched. Table V -9 below provides a summary of typical retail tenant requirements for chain stores that may be suitable for the subject sites. It is important to note that several of the small retailers will require the presence of a grocery store anchor, in order to be co- located at a retail shopping center site. Similarly, the major restaurant chains have a strong desire to be located within major retail shopping centers or malls to capture spillover customers from adjacent retail stores and associated higher traffic volumes that free - standing restaurant locations. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 31 SEPTEMBER 2004 000114 Total Preferred GLA Sales in 2003 Avg. Sales Percent in Tenant Stores (Sq. F t.� (in arailli ®n $� per Store 1�lalls Wal -Mart' 4,808 40,000 - 125,000 $256,329 $53,310,000 40 -59% Home Depot 1,707 95,000 - 130,000 64,816 37,970,000 0-19% Staples 1,358 25,000 13,181 9,710,000 80-100% Target 1,550 123,000 - 174,000 48,163 31,070,000 20-39% Orchard Supply Store'` 1,105 50,000 N/A N/A 40-59% Lowe's home Improvment 997 100,000 - 150,000 30,838 30,930,000 20-39% Ross Dress for Less 575 25,000 - 30,187 3,920 6,820,000 80-100% Kohl's 563 75,000 - 86,000 10,282 18,260,000 80-100% Border's 482 25,000 2,470 5,120,000 80-100% Best Buy 630 30,000 - 45,000 24,547 38,960,000 40-59% Sportmart 384 50,000 1,761 N/A 40-59% Sports Chalet 28 35,000 - 43,000 264 9,440,000 80-100% I . For regular Wal -Mart stores only. Wal -Mart Super- centers require up to 233,000 square feet. 2. This figure includes all stores owned by the Sears Specialty Group, including the Great Indoors, Sears Appliances, Sears Auto Centers and Sears Hardware. The Orchard Supply Hardware store locations figure was not broken out individually. Sources: 2003 Retail Tenant Directory; Securities & Exchanges Commission; and CBRE Consulting. As demonstrated above, the medium -to -small national anchor retailers prefer new store location to have a preferred GLA ranging from a minimum of 25,000 square feet for tenants such as Staples, Border's, and Ross Dress for Less to as high as 150,000 to 174,000 square feet for tenants such as Lowe's Home Improvement, Home Depot or Costco. The majority of retailers prefer locations that are within a retail center or mall. The exceptions are larger and well -known brand stores such as Wal- Mart and Target, in addition to home improvement warehouses such as Home Depot and Lowe's, which may consider either free - standing locations or as part of a retail center or mall. The implication of this analysis to Moorpark is that to attract many of the above retailers, a minimum of 15 to 20 acres must be available in a desirable location. It is interesting to note that a typical Do -It Center or Orchard Supply Hardware is less than one -half the size of its competitors Home Depot and Lowe's, and may be a viable tenant for a 5 to 10 -acre site on Los Angeles Ave. Medium -To -Small IRetaiLlRestaurants In addition to medium -to -large retail anchors, retail tenant requirements for medium -to -small restaurants were researched. Table V -9 below provides a summary of typical retail tenant requirements for chain stores that may be suitable for the subject sites. It is important to note that several of the small retailers will require the presence of a grocery store anchor, in order to be co- located at a retail shopping center site. Similarly, the major restaurant chains have a strong desire to be located within major retail shopping centers or malls to capture spillover customers from adjacent retail stores and associated higher traffic volumes that free - standing restaurant locations. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 31 SEPTEMBER 2004 000114 RDKJ1 CBRE C3 R!CHARD Table V -9 Retail Tenant Reouirernents — Medium -to -Small Retail/Restaurants Total Preferred GI,A Sales in 2003 Avg. Sales Percent in Tenant Stores CSq. Ft.) in million -. � Store Center / Mall Small Retail Blockbuster Video 8,900 2,500 — 4,800 $5,815 $650,000 60-79% Starbucks Coffee 4,616 100-4,500 4,075 $880,000 20-39% Hollywood Video 1,810 4,000 — 7,500 1,682 $930,000 80-100% Restaurants Applebee's Bar and GriI12 1,572 5,000 3,960 $2,500,000 40-59% Chili's Bar and Grill' 1,402' 5,000 — 7,000 3,285 $2,340,000 60-79% Roman's Macaroni Grill' 1,402' 7,500 N/A N/A 60-79% Cutback Steakhouse 1055 6,000 2,744 $2,600,000 60-79% 1. Brinker International operates Chili's Bar and Grill and Romano's Macaroni Grill. This figure includes all stores within the chain and is not broken out by restaurant type. 2. Sales figure estimate arrived at after considering that 75% of stores are franchisee owned. Sources: 2003 Retail Tenant Directory; Securities & Exchanges Commission; and CBRE Consulting As shown above, the retail tenant requirements for medium to small tenants such as Blockbuster Video, Hollywood Video and Starbucks typically fall within the range of 2,500 to 7,500 square feet, depending on location and planned store size (All three are already established in Moorpark). As demonstrated, Hollywood and Blockbuster Video place a high location priority on their presence within a retail center or mall, much less than Starbuck's requirement. Major restaurant chains require approximately 5,000 to 7,000 square feet of retail space, depending on location. The majority of restaurant retailers shown above have a strong preference for their retail locations to be located in a retail center or mall. CBRE Consulting estimated per store sales volumes for various retail tenants whose space requirements were profiled in the previous section. These sales volumes were based upon reported sales volumes of representative retailers to the Securities & Exchanges Commission, and review of published materials, such as Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers compiled by the Urban Land Institute. The resulting per store sales volumes range from under $1 million for restaurants and small retailers, under $10 million per store for drug- stores and pharmacies, $10 -25 million for supermarkets, to as high as $30 -60 million per store for large retailers, like Wal -Mart at an average of $53 million per store. Costco membership warehouse stores can achieve sales of $100 million or more. Table V -10 lists the Western region's median sales per square foot for various retail types. This, along with the average sales per store figures could be taken as an indicator for the respective retail tenant's sales volume expectancy or how much business the retailer needs to enter this local market. Table V -10 MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 32 SEPTEMBER 2004 G 0 61DKJ1 CBRE Historically, Downtown Moorpark served as the commercial center and agricultural hub for the surrounding Ventura and Los Angeles communities beginning in the early 1900's. Despite the historic. character of High Street, the role of downtown as a commercial district declined. Many of the original buildings were demolished. Most retailing now takes places in newer, modern shopping centers along Los Angeles Avenue in Moorpark and outlying cities such as Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. The role of the Downtown Specific Plan, adopted in 1998, is to preserve the High Street corridor's unique and historic role as a civic and community focus. The streets proximity to City Hall, senior centers, the train depot, multiple schools, and historic buildings reinforces its position within the community as a place of enjoyment for visiting, walking and entertaining. The City and Redevelopment Agency have dedicated themselves to the improvement of downtown revitalization, and as such commissioned a study that address the issues of revitalization in the downtown. Since the completion of the Downtown Study, city leaders have implemented many components of the plan, including streetscape improvements, tree planting, design standards, parking improvements and circulation related issues. In accordance with the Downtown Moorpark Specific Plan, in terms of new retail development, the following uses are most likely tailored to support the vision of the Specific Plan: ® Restaurant/dining, ® Small -scale retail commercial (e.g., cart galleries, antique shops), ® Specialty retail (e.g., clothing boutiques), and 0 Small entertainment uses (e.g., small performing arts center), and ® Local neighborhood - serving office development (e.g., insurance, real estate, banking). Review of the Specific Plan and a survey of available land and existing properties within the Downtown Moorpark core suggest that there is not enough land or existing retail development to support the attraction of large -scale national retailers to locate in the Downtown area. As previously summarized, large national retailers have stringent locational criteria such as store size, high - traffic locations, parking availability, proximity to existing retailers, and related requirements. The intent of these retailer's stringent locational criteria is to meet sales volumes and financial projections for new stores to become profitable operations in new store locations. Downtown Moorpark does have the ability to attract office tenants either through converting existing commercial space to office uses or for small -scale new office development. This land use is consistent with the goals and objectives outlined in the Downtown Moorpark Specific Plan. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 33 SEPTEMBER 2004 ADKd1 CBRE CBRE Consulting conducted an analysis of neighborhood- serving office development to determine the amount of commercial land needed within the City of Moorpark to accommodate likely future office development. The neighborhood serving office (NSO) demand in Moorpark was estimated from 2000 Census data using the industry, occupation, and class of worker profile of the labor force in the City. The procedure and steps involved in this NSO space demand model is as follows. • Workers in the occupational profile of Management, Professional, Sales, Service or Office (office space requiring occupations) are estimated. Within each of these categories a share of local serving users is assumed. Sales & office occupations get highest share followed by Services, & then Management /professional. Overall we estimate 9.1% of total workers in these occupations are likely to be in neighborhood serving uses. • Office intensive uses such as Information; Finance, Insurance & Real Estate; Professional and Management; Education, Health and Social Services; Arts and Entertainment; and other services provide a sub -total of 8,166 workers. ® Taking the 9.1 % factor and applying it to the 8,166 workers gives an estimated 740 workers in neighborhood serving offices. Based on a conservative range of average office space requirement of 225 -250 square foot per employee, CBRE Consulting estimated 166,000 to 185,000 sq.ft. of NSO space. Dividing by the current population of Moorpark yields an average NSO space demand of 5.0 sq.ft. per 1,000 people. The above methodology means that as a result of future population growth, the amount of office space required is expected to grow by approximately 50,000 square feet, an amount that could be easily accommodated within 4 -5 acres of commercial land. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & LAND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 34 SEPTEMBER 2004 000:117 ADKJ1 CB CBRE Consulting has made extensive efforts to confirm the accuracy and timeliness of the information contained in this study. Such information was compiled from a variety of sources, including interviews with government officials, review of City and County documents, and other third parties deemed to be reliable. Although CERE Consulting believes all information in this study is correct, it does not warrant the accuracy of such information and assumes no responsibility for inaccuracies in the information by third parties. We have no responsibility to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report. Further, no guarantee is made as to the possible effect on development of present or future federal, state or local legislation, including any regarding environmental or ecological matters. The accompanying projections and analyses are based on estimates and assumptions developed in connection with the study. In turn, these assumptions, and their relation to the projections, were developed using currently available economic data and other relevant information. It is the nature of forecasting, however, that some assumptions may not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Therefore, actual results achieved during the projection period will likely vary from the projections, and some of the variations may be material to the conclusions of the analysis. Contractual obligations do not include access to or ownership transfer of any electronic data processing files, programs or models completed directly for or as by- products of this research effort, unless explicitly so agreed as part of the contract. MOORPARK - RETAIL MARKET & i.AND USE FEASIBILITY STUDY 35 SEPTEMBER 2004 000118