HomeMy WebLinkAboutAGENDA REPORT 2016 0907 CCSA REG ITEM 09B ITEM 9.B.
CITY OF MOORPA.RK,CALIFORNIA
City Council Meeting
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ACTION: "Loa,it 0.4,
MOORPARK CITY COUNCIL fr;d .
AGENDA REPORT -
BY: �
TO: Honorable City Council
FROM: David A. Bobardt, Community Development Director
DATE: August 26, 2016 (CC Meeting of 9/7/2016)
SUBJECT: Consider Moorpark Commercial Market Overview
BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION
In 2004, Allan D. Kotin and Associates, along with CB Richard Ellis Consulting,
prepared a retail market and land use feasibility study for the City to help understand
whether or not certain vacant properties planned for commercial uses should be
maintained for commercial uses or changed to a non-commercial planned land use.
The Retail Study concluded that the City had significant retail leakage that would require
several thousand square feet of new commercial development consuming
approximately 50 acres of land over the next 20 years. The Retail Study also revealed
that the City does not have a sufficient supply of large sites to accommodate large scale
retail development needed to capture the retail leakage.
From the time of this study to 2008, four new shopping centers (Campus Plaza, Village
at Moorpark, Tuscany Square/The Grove at Moorpark, and LA Spring Center) were
completed, an existing shopping center (Mountain Meadows Plaza) was expanded, and
a stand-alone retail appliance showroom and retail building (Warehouse Discount
Center) were built, adding over 360,000 square feet of retail commercial space. This
additional retail space is approximately equivalent to the size of the Moorpark
Marketplace shopping center, which was completed in 2003. These new centers, along
with some of the previously established centers in Moorpark, have had noticeable
vacancies. In addition, an approved Home Depot project and two new approved office
developments on Los Angeles Avenue never were built. One of the office
developments that was not built was proposed by developer Grand Moorpark, after its
General Plan Amendment pre-screening application to build a residential townhouse
development was rejected, partially based on the conclusions of the Kotin study, which
suggested retaining the site for commercial use.
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Honorable City Council
September 7, 2016
Page 2
The retail industry has changed dramatically and rapidly since the Kotin Study in 2004.
Probably the most influential force shaping the retail industry today is the intemet.
Internet sales have been increasing at a faster pace than brick and mortar sales, but
now internet sales are experiencing a shift. Consumers are beginning to shift away
from purchasing items on their laptop or desktop and are now buying via phone or
tablet. Consumers are increasingly using mobile phones and tablets for product
research and online purchasing. This shift to mobile devices is expected to continue in
the future and drive the growth of online sales as more consumers have convenient
access to the internet. Changes in the demand for commercial space warranted an
update to this commercial demand study that would assist in considering individual
projects as, well as updating the Land Use Element of the General Plan. Brick and
mortar stores have recognized these trends and offer rapid shipping of Internet orders to
the stores, which, combined with automated inventory replacement, has substantially
reduced the amount of space needed for inventory. A number of stores, including
Staples, have chosen to focus on internet sales combined with quick delivery and have
closed hundreds of stores nationwide. This trend has also been felt locally.
On May 21, 2014, the City Council authorized the submittal of a General Plan
Amendment application for a proposed change in planned land use from General
Commercial to Very High Density Residential on 4.0 vacant acres west of the Mission
Bell Plaza shopping Center. This authorization was contingent upon the contribution of
$20,000.00 to a commercial demand study to help determine the appropriate land use
for this property. An application by Grand Moorpark for a 66-unit townhouse
condominium project was submitted on October 10, 2014, along with the contribution
toward the commercial demand study.
On April 15, 2015, the City Council authorized the submittal of a General Plan
Amendment application for a proposed change in planned land use from General
Commercial to Very High Density Residential on 7.8 acres currently used for
recreational vehicle storage and two homes at 4875 Spring Road and 384 Los Angeles
Avenue. This authorization also was contingent upon the contribution of $20,000.00
toward a commercial demand study. An application by Spring Road, LLC, for a 95-unit
townhouse condominium project was submitted on November 17, 2015, along with the
contribution toward the commercial demand study.
On July 1, 2015, the City Council authorized a budget appropriation of $40,000.00 to
enter into an agreement with Keyser Marston Associates to conduct a retail, office and
hotel market study of Moorpark, fully funded by the aforementioned development project
proposals. An agreement was executed on October 19, 2015 to prepare this study.
This study was completed in June, 2016, and, after review by staff, distributed to the
City Council on July 1, 2016. Two corrections have been made to this document and
are incorporated in the final attached document as follows:
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Honorable City Council
September 7, 2016
Page 3
• On Page 11, SCAG Population figures have been updated to reflect the Regional
Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy adopted in April 2016.
• On Page 27, a typo on the land costs in Point No. 4 was corrected.
The following is a brief summary of the conclusions of the Keyser Marston study. A
complete Executive Summary is included on Pages 3-9 of the attached report.
Retail
The study documented an excess of retail space in Moorpark, with an estimated
280,000 square feet currently vacant. Given the highly competitive regional and
subregional markets with two substantially larger cities bracketing Moorpark and
drawing sales to Moorpark residents, the increase in e-commerce, and the limited
population growth potential within Moorpark, the study projects that demand for retail
uses can be accommodated within this existing vacant retail space over the next 20
years. The study also indicates that the City may wish to consider converting some, of
the less-than-optimal commercial sites to alternative uses to promote a healthier retail
environment.
Office
Given current space allocation trends, high vacancy rates in the market area, low
population and limited employment base, opportunities for office development are likely
limited to institutional or smaller professional firms.
Industrial
The regional and subregional market for industrial space is strong with low vacancy
rates and high absorption rates. Much of the space is being developed for logistics
(warehousing) tenants, where employee counts are limited.
Hotel
The demand analysis indicates a healthy amount of hotel potential in the Simi
Valley/Moorpark market area with the Moorpark Fairfield Inn and a planned Simi Valley
Hampton Inn taking up a good share of the near to mid-term demand.
STAFF RECOMMENDATION
Receive and file.
Attachment: City of Moorpark Market Overview, Keyser Marston Associates,
August 26, 2016
77
KEYSER MARSTON ASSOCIATES.
ADVISORS IN PUBLIC/PRIVATE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT
MEMORANDUM
Apvisoas N, To: David Bobardt, Community Development Director
REAI.ERATE
REDEVELOPMENT City of Moorpark
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
From: Kevin Engstrom
SAN FRANCISCO
A JERRY KEYSER James Rabe
TIMOTHY C.KELLY
KATE EARLE FUNK
DEBBIE M.KERN Date: August 26, 2016
REED T.KAWAHARA
DAVID JWZFMA
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Overview
Los ANGELES
KATHLEEN H HEAD
JAMES A.RABE
GIffFARY D SD>-Hao INTRODUCTION
KEVIN E.ENOSTROM
JULIE L.RAY
SAN DB[GG Pursuant to your request, Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA) prepared a market
PAIILC.MARRA analysis for the City of Moorpark (City). The analysis estimated the magnitude of the
existing commercial development in the City and summarized the market conditions for
the City, estimating demand for retail, office, industrial and hotel development. The main
sections of the analysis are summarized below:
1. Socio-Economic Characteristics'-- KMA evaluated the socio-economic
characteristics of the three, five and ten-mile market area, City and Ventura
County(County). Reviewing the socio-economic characteristics of the market
area residents is necessary for the evaluation of potential market opportunities.
2. Employment and Business- Provides a summary of existing employment and
businesses.
3. Commercial Inventory—Working with the City, KMA estimated the amount of
commercial development in the City.
1 Socio-Economic characteristics include demographic and economic traits(e.g. population, race,
age, education levels, income levels etc.)of market area residents.
500 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE,SUITE 1480>LOS ANGELES,CALIFORNIA 90071 '-PHONE:213 622 8095 FAX:213 622 5204
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 2
4. Retail Overview- Includes data from regional brokerage houses, current asking
rents, estimates of current retail productivity levels, and estimates of the likely
supportable retail.
5. Office Overview-This analysis includes data from regional brokerage houses,
current asking rents and market demand projections to assess potential
opportunities.
6. Industrial Overview—This analysis includes data from regional brokerage
houses, current asking rents and market demand projections to assess potential
opportunities.
7. Lodging Overview-This analysis includes an evaluation of average daily rates,
occupancy and demand in the region.
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 4
slow; therefore, limited office development has occurred in Ventura County. In
addition, vacancy rates in the Simi Valley/Moorpark market area are higher than
the County and the City has a small population and employment base, these
factors will all inhibit demand. In addition to these local factors, current trends in
the office industry indicate the amount of space required by businesses on a per
employee basis is decreasing. Whereas historical precedent saw typical space
allocations of 250 square feet per employee, current space allocations now range
from 175 to 200 square feet per employee. Technology and improving
connectivity, which allow employees to work off-site are a significant factor
promoting this reduction.
6. Industrial - The Southern California industrial market is very healthy. Within
Ventura County, the market is strong, with an average vacancy rate of 5.6% and
high absorption levels. In particular, the Simi Valley/Moorpark market area is
very healthy with vacancy rates (5.3%)that are lower than the County and strong
absorption (377,000 square feet), which accounts for 50% of the County total.
Regional trends indicate a healthy long-term industrial market especially for uses
with smaller offices, with much of the space is being developed for logistics
tenants, which generate limited employee counts. Overall, market demand is
likely to be strong in the near-to mid-term.
7. Hotel—Historically, hotels are the most volatile land use, as rooms are"rented"
on a nightly basis. This trend will continue in the future, as fluctuations in
employment, the economy, and natural/man-made disasters can all have a
significant influence on the hotel industry. Notwithstanding these issues, the
hotel market in Southem California is healthy, having improved significantly over
the past five years. The demand analysis indicates a healthy amount of hotel'
potential in the Simi Valley/Moorpark market area over the next 20 years. In
addition, the nearby Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills market area is performing very
well. Over the past five years, the Simi Valley/Moorpark market area has not
seen an increase in hotel room supply. Given the healthy market conditions, a
new Hampton Inn & Suites is planned for Simi Valley and a 108-room Fairfield
Hotel is planned for Moorpark. If these projects proceed, they will account for a
good share of the near to mid-term demand.
The key implications of the market analysis are summarized below:
1. The higher income and education levels of City residents are very attractive to
retailers; however, the low number of households will offset these attributes,
which limits opportunities.
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 5
2. The City is located in a highly competitive Southern California market area. As
such, credit tenants have many choices when making decisions on sites, and the
low population densities will hamper the City's attractiveness. This is likely to
remain the case, even if regional traffic along Los Angeles Avenue continues to
grow.
3. Typical retail market areas will extend from one to five miles depending on the
establishment type; however, the ten-mile regional market area and opportunities
therein, will still impact site selection decisions.
4. The City exists in a highly competitive market area, as it is bracketed by
Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley, which are home to strong, regional retail
centers. These jurisdictions are capturing and/or are well suited to capture
demand from City residents due to agglomeration principles (tenants which
attract similar patrons cluster together) and stronger locations. This
phenomenon is already occurring with apparel stores, which show a significant
amount of demand for the City, but a surplus of sales in the ten-mile market area.
•
5. In recent years, e-commerce sales have risen nationally at a rate substantially
faster than shopping center sales. The Urban Land Institute and International
Council of Shopping Centers indicate this trend will continue, with traditional
retailers expanding and focusing on their on-line potential. Due to these factors,
publications indicate that"shopping online will make retail space dwindle" as on-
line sales are projected to approach 30% of total retail sales by 2030.3 These
changes will particularly impact areas that are not considered prime retail
locations.
6. The surplus/leakage analysis for the City shows potential demand for 220,000
square feet of retail. However, this demand is spread across all establishment
types, so most opportunities are limited to smaller, locally serving retailers.
Further, competition in the five-mile market area is already absorbing much of
this demand, particularly for home furnishings/electronic/appliance stores,
building materials stores, sporting goods/hobby stores, general merchandise and
miscellaneous retailers. When the market area capture of these tenant types is
considered, the potential demand is reduced to 140,000 square feet. At 140,000
to 220,000 square feet, the magnitude of this demand is less than the current
amount of vacant space in the City.
3 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016 and USAA's E-Commerce:Implications for Retail Real
Estate.
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 6
7. Population and household growth projections for the market area do not indicate
significant growth opportunities. Based on current projections, retail demand
through 2035 totals 455,000 square feet; however, much of this demand is
currently being absorbed in the market area. In fact, the current surplus of sales
in the five-mile market area for home furnishings&appliance stores, building
materials stores and other/miscellaneous retail is greater than the demand
projected for the City through 2035. When the market area performance for
these establishment types is considered, the supported retail is only 310,000
square feet. Assuming the City captures a share of this demand consistent with
current levels, then the potential supported development is approximately
200,000 square feet.4 Assuming the range of retail demand estimated in the
sensitivity test(374,000 to 589,000 square feet), the supported retail would be
165,000 to 275,000 square feet.
8. Within the City, approximately 280,000 square feet of commercial space is
vacant, so the current amount of vacant space exceeds current demand and the
twenty-year demand projections.
9. The City may consider the potential conversion of commercial to alternative land
uses. This could promote a healthier retail environment in those areas that are
more successful. The conversion of underperforming centers to mixed use could
benefit the City by generating more residents, while at the same time allowing
land owners to reposition underperforming retail. The conversion to single use
residential projects would increase the market area buying power.
10. Undeveloped land with freeway visibility may provide superior long-term retail
opportunities than currently developed parcels along secondary and tertiary
roads. For instance, the twelve acres south of Moorpark Marketplace may
provide an opportunity for new retail development, particularly if a big box retailer
opportunity presents itself in the future. Given the current vacancy rates, long-
term demand and potential new development opportunities, the City could
consider rezoning between 20 and 30 acres of commercial to alternative uses
(up to 40 acres may make sense if the City rezones a significant share of this
land to mixed-use). At a typical floor area ratio(building area divided by land
area) of.25, this would equate to a potential loss of 218,000 to 327,000 square
feet of existing or future commercial. Opportunities for this conversion could
include retail sites along Spring Road, Moorpark Avenue, commercial centers
north of Highway 118 (e.g. Varsity Square Plaza) and mid-block locations along
4 This is particularly true for apparel stores, as the ten-mile market area shows a significant
surplus of these sales.
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 8
station),tenant improvement loan programs and facade improvement
programs can be utilized to maintain and update the area.
e. Marketing and activities—Activating the area with events such as a
farmer's market, car show or other thematic activity can introduce patrons
to the area. In addition, way-finding and promotional activities can
highlight the area.
14. Given current space allocation trends, high vacancy rates in the market area, a
low population density and a limited employment base in the City, new office
development in the City will likely be limited to institutional uses and/or smaller
professional firms. The tenants of this space will appreciate the appeal of
Moorpark and the surrounding environs. The smaller professional firms will also
look for space in commercial centers.
15. The market opportunities for office, industrial and hotels in Moorpark will be
strongly influenced by competitive sites in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks.
16. According to the ICSC, office/business park workers spending accounts for less
than 2% of national retail sales. The City currently has 11,800 employees,
assuming national trends, approximately 20% of these employees are office
related (2,400 employees). The expenditures of these employees likely range
from $10 million to$15 million annually. Given the magnitude of these
expenditures, most retailers rely on market area residents for long-term success,
with daytime employment providing an assist towards profitability.
17. Larger scale office demand is likely to be driven by factors outside of normal
market conditions(employment growth), as companies will sometimes choose
locations based on business decisions(e.g. proximity to decision makers'
residences) and not market factors. Further, companies currently in the City may
require additional space as their business improves.
18. Demand factors are strong for industrial land uses, particularly for sites offering
easy freeway access and adjacency.
19. The successful development of large scale employment generating projects (e.g.
the 594,000 square foot motion picture studio project on Los Angeles Avenue)
can benefit local retailers as employees will make expenditures near work.
However, success for the vast majority of retailers relies on demand from the
local population base with daytime employment providing an assist towards
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 9
profitability. Employment generated by these large projects could have a healthy
impact on hotel room demand in the City.
20. Given the modest average daily rate(ADR) in the Simi Valley/Moorpark market
area, hotel demand from leisure, corporate and event attendees is likely to
continue being focused on select service and/or extended stay hotels.
Ultimately, the modest RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) may make it
challenging for a hotel to be financially feasible, even though it has market
feasibility. If hotel ADRs do continue to climb, freeway adjacent parcels would be
the preferred location for this type of hotel. For instance, the site currently leased
by The Home Depot south of the Moorpark Marketplace may provide an
opportunity for this type of use.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
The socio-economic characteristics of the market area, City and County are shown in
Tables 1 -4. The market area and City boundaries are shown in Figure 1. The key
variables for the market area are summarized below:
1. The market area is characterized by relatively low population densities,when
compared to Los Angeles County(2,100 persons per square mile) and Orange
County(3,200 persons per square mile).5
Population Density
(People/Square Mile)
3-Mile Ring 1,370
5-Mile Ring 1,020
10-Mile Ring 1,150
Moorpark 2,870
Ventura County 460
2. The market area population is comprised of slightly larger households.
3. The median household income level in the City and market area is relatively very
high.
5 The market area is defined from the intersection of Moorpark Avenue at Los Angeles Avenue.
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Median Household
Income
3-Mile Ring $97,800
5-Mile Ring $96,800
10-Mile Ring $89,200
Moorpark $95,900
Ventura County $73,000
4. Within the market area and City, over 23% of the households earn incomes over
$150,000, which is much higher than the County.
Household Income Distribution
40.00%
30.00%
20.00% _
IHllhrirILi
M i
1111
,0.006 _ 11IIION .- .. M,l
0.00% —
Under$25,000 $25,000 to$49,999 $50,000 to$99,999 $100,000 to $150,000+
03 Mile Ring ■5 Mile Ring 010 Mile Ring 0Moorpark uVentura County
5. The age distribution in the market area and City are consistent with the County.
The median age in the City is 36 years, which is slightly lower than the County
average of 37 years
6. Market area and City residents are higher educated than the County, with over
37% having graduated from college compared to 31% in the County.
7. Growth projections for the market area are moderate and should be consistent
with the County through 2019.
Household Growth Projections
Change
2015 2020 Total Percent
3-Mile Ring 11,814 12,300 486 4.1%
5-Mile Ring 26,451 27,449 998 3.8%
10-Mile Ring 123,788 128,658 4,870 3.9%
Moorpark 10,836 11,292 456 4.2%
Ventura County 275,297 285,729 10,432 3.8%
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8. Growth projections for the City indicate a total of 8,200 persons through 2040,
which equates to a .8% compound annual growth rate(CAAG). This is slightly
higher than the County average of.5%.
SCAG Population Projections
2012-2040e
Compound
Annual
Growth Gross
Camarillo City 0.7% 13,600
Fillmore City 0.5% 3,000
Moorpark City 0.8% 8,200
Ojai City 0.4% 900
Oxnard City 0.6% 37,200
Port Hueneme City 0.1% 600
San Buenaventura City 0.6% 18,600
Santa Paula City 1.0% 9,800
Simi Valley City 0.5% 17,300
Thousand Oaks City 0.1% 3,900
Unincorporated 0.6% 1&900
Ventura County 0.5% 130,000
The socio-economic makeup of the market area will have an impact on retail
opportunities. In particular, retailers focus on population density, income levels and
education levels. The market area population is not very large; however, both the
income levels and education levels are much higher than the County average. The
higher income and education levels are very attractive to retailers; however, the low
number of households will limit opportunities.
EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESSES
Tables 5- 7 show the employment and business mix for the market area and County.
1. As shown in Table 5, employment in Ventura County increased at a steady rate
after the 2011 (post-recession).
2. Within the City, there is a concentration of employment and businesses in the
following industries (Tables 6 and 7):
a. Construction
b. Manufacturing
6 Source: Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)and KMA
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c. Wholesale trade
d. Administrative/support services
e. Educational services
f. Finance and insurance (employment only)
The concentration of Finance and Insurance employment is good for office demand;
however, there are actually fewer businesses. In addition, there is a smaller share of
Real Estate and Professional businesses in the City, which are both office users.
COMMERCIAL INVENTORY
Working with maps provided by the City, KMA prepared an inventory study of the
commercially zoned space in Moorpark, which is shown in Figure 1. The results
summarized below are estimates of square footage based on an interpretation of
satellite imagery via geographic information systems (GIS) software. The results of this
analysis were then reviewed through site visits to verify current conditions.'
1. As shown in Figure 2 and summarized below, the City has approximately 1.8
million square feet of commercial space. Approximately 16% of the total space
is vacant, 283,000 square feet.
City Commercial Space
Total Share
Occupied Commercial Space 1,498,600 84.0%
Vacant Commercial Space 282.900 16.0%
Commercial Space Total 1,780,500 100.0%
2. As shown in Figure 3 and summarized below, over one-third of the commercial
building space in the City is either vacant or occupied by institutional, service or
non-retail users. At this level, these tenants/vacancies account for a significant
share of the citywide total. Home furnishings, appliance and building materials
stores account for the greatest share of the retailers (11.2%), followed by food
service and drinking places (10.7%) and miscellaneous store retailers(e.g.
florists, sporting good, hobby stores, etc.) at 10.3%.
'As such, these results reflect an order of magnitude estimate for the building square footage.
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Distribution of Commercial Space by Type of Establishment
Establishment Type Total Share
Home Furnishings,Appliances&Building Materials 199,600 11.2%
Food Service& Drinking Places 191,400 10.7%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 184,000 10.3%
Food &Beverage Store 163,100 9.2%
General Merchandise 152,900 8.6%
Clothing &Clothing Accessories Stores 144,700 8.1%
Motor Vehicle& Parts Dealers 133,900 7.5%
Gasoline Station 13,100 0.7%
Non-Retail/Institution/Service/Other 315,000 17.7%
Vacant 282.900 15.9%
Total 1,780,500 100.0%
3. Shown in Figure 4 and summarized below is the scope of the major commercial
centers in the City. A brief description of the centers exceeding 50,000 square
feet follows.8
Distribution of Commercial Space by Major Center
Establishment Type Total Share
Moorpark Marketplace 337,800 19.0%
Mission Bell Plaza 240,600 13.5%
Moorpark Town Center 139,200 7.8%
The Village @ Moorpark 128,700 7.2%
Vons Center 106,700 6.0%
Moorpark Plaza Shopping Center 78,800 4.4%
Tuscany Square Shopping Center 73,800 4.1%
High Street Corridor 64,200 3.6%
Moorpark Campus Plaza 50,200 2.8%
LA Spring Shopping Center 35,200 2.0%
Village Retail Shopping Center 31,800 1.8%
Gateway Plaza 28,200 1.6%
Varsity Park Plaza 21,800 1.2%
Miscellaneous Retail9 443.500 24.9%
Total 1,780,500 100.0%
a. Moorpark Marketplace—Located on Los Angeles and State Route 23,
this is the largest center in the City with nearly 340,000 square feet of
The building area of some centers is owned by multiple entities; consequently,the square
footage estimates may not correspond directly to published sources.
9 Includes the Warehouse Discount Center, which is approximately one-quarter of this space.
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leasable area. This high quality, community retail center with limited
vacancies is anchored by Target, Kohl's and TJ Maxx.
b. Mission Bell Plaza— Located at the intersection of Park Lane and Los
Angeles Avenue, this moderate quality, neighborhood retail center has
significant vacancies accounting for over 50% of the rentable area.
c. Moorpark Town Center—Located on Los Angeles at Moorpark Avenue,
this is a large, moderate quality, neighborhood center, anchored by
Ralph's, CVS and Goodwill. The center has a modest vacancy rate, with
approximately 25% of the space occupied by non-retail (realty firm, bank,
etc.) and service (urgent care, wellness center, optometry, etc.)tenants.
d. The Village @ Moorpark—This newer, neighborhood center is located at
the intersection of Miller Parkway and Los Angeles. While the center is in
good condition, it has significant vacancies, which exceed one-third of its
129,000 square feet. In addition, Dick's Sporting Goods indicates it will
be leaving the center in 2017.
e. Vons Center— Located at the intersection of Tierra Rejada and Mountain
Trail, this is a small scale neighborhood shopping center. While the
center is anchored by Vons, over one-third of the tenants are non-retail,
institutional or service establishments.
f. Moorpark Plaza Shopping Center—This moderate quality strip center is
occupied by a number of services (e.g. dentistry, orthodontists), Wood
Ranch BBQ & Grill and other food service establishments.
g. Tuscany Square Shopping Center—This newer, neighborhood center is
located at the intersection of Moorpark Avenue and Los Angeles Avenue.
The center has approximately 74,000 square feet and is currently
anchored by Walgreens. The center is approximately one third vacant,
with the largest space previously occupied by Fresh & Easy.
h. High Street10—Approximately 64,000 square feet of eclectic, older
commercial space is located along and adjacent to High Street in
downtown Moorpark. The commercial has moderate vacancies, with
approximately one-quarter of the space occupied by non-retail or service
related users.
1°Area bounded by High Street, Moorpark Avenue, Charles Street and Spring Road.
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Moorpark Campus Plaza — Located near the Community College, this
moderate quality, unanchored strip center is occupied by a number of
office and food service establishments. Immediately adjacent to the
center is a gas station and McDonald's. The center has relatively high
vacancies.
4. Figure 5 shows the office related space in the City; however, there are limited to
no Class A office buildings. Instead, the majority of office space users are
located in business park/campus developments along Princeton Avenue and Los
Angeles Avenue. Sample tenant types include aerospace firms, electronics
manufacturers, real estate services, lenders and software companies. Within the
City, there is not a significant concentration of typical office using industries such
as real estate, professional services, and information firms. In addition, small
professional offices are located throughout the City's commercial centers. Office
vacancy rates in the market area exceed 20%.
Some key findings of the inventory study include:
• Approximately 16% of the commercial space in the City is vacant.
• Many centers are relying on non-retail, institutional and service related tenants to
fill a healthy share of their space.
• Centers that have good locations and are in good condition still have high
vacancies.
• Anchor spaces in some centers are vacant.
• Office development in the City is limited to campus/business park developments.
RETAIL OVERVIEW
The information compiled for the retail overview can be summarized as follows:
1. As shown in Table 8, the per capita retail sales are lower in the City($7,600)
than the County ($10,900) and the State ($10,600). In particular, citywide sales
are particularly weak for:
a. Motor vehicles
b. Building materials
c. Clothing stores
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2. As shown in Table 9, the average sales per establishment is lower in the City
when compared to the County and State averages.
3. Tables 10 and 11 summarize the current and projected retail surplus and leakage
for the City of Moorpark. As shown in the Table 11, the City could support
approximately 220,000 square feet currently and 491,000 square feet through
2035. However, it is important to note a number of factors that influence these
projections:
a. This demand would need to fill existing retail prior to new development
occurring. Typically, vacancy rates would need to be approximately 5%
for interest in new development to occur.
b. E-commerce will have a growing impact on retail sales in Moorpark and
the nation. In recent years, e-commerce sales have risen nationally at a
rate substantially faster than shopping center sales. According to the U.S.
Census Bureau, during the fourth quarter of 2015, e-commerce sales in
the U.S. totaled $89.5 billion, or 7.5% of total U.S. retail sales. This
represented an extremely robust 15.1% year-over-year growth in e-
commerce sales, as compared to a nominal 1.4% increase in total retail
sales during the same time period. According to the Emerging Trends in
Real Estate, "shopping online will make retail space dwindle" as many
retailers are reduced space and are expanding their on-line offerings.11
Further, the Urban Land Institute and International Council of Shopping
Centers indicate the same, with traditional retailers expanding and
focusing on their on-line potential. According to the USAA Real Estate
Company's E-Commerce: Implications for Retail Real Estate, on-line
retail sales will account for 30% of total retail sales by 2030. To reflect
this change in the long-term projections, KMA assumed the share of on-
line retail demand for the non-food establishment types would increase
5.0% annually, to approximately 20% of sales.12
c. The real estate needs of tenant types vary significantly. For instance,
many general merchandise and building improvement stores are
approximately 100,000 square feet(e.g. Target, Costco, Nordstrom's,
The Home Depot, etc.), so the demand shown here is insufficient to
support them.
11 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
12 Forrester Research Inc. estimates on-line sales will increase 9.3% annually through 2020.
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d. Retail trade areas are not determined by City boundaries and are instead
created by distance (miles or driving). As shown in Tables 12 and 13, the
five-mile market area currently has a surplus of home furnishings &
appliances, building materials & garden equipment stores and
miscellaneous stores, which will limit opportunities for this type of space
in the City.
e. The projections assume the existing tenants in the City are operating at
acceptable productivity levels; however, the sales per square foot for
every establishment type in the City is lower than national averages. As
such, existing retailers could potentially absorb a share of this demand.
Projected Retail Demand Through 203513
Establishment Type Demand (SF)
Home Furnishings &Appliances 25,100
Building Material & Garden Equipment 72,600
Food & Beverage Stores 86,300
Clothing &Clothing Accessories 101,200
General Merchandise Stores 48,100
Food Services& Drinking Places 74,500
Other Retail Group 47,000
Retail Stores Total 454,800
4. In addition to the commercial supported by residents, KMA also evaluated the
potential retail supported by office/business park workers. According to the
International Council of Shopping Centers— Office-Worker Retail Spending in
Digital Age, the spending of these workers accounts for less than 2% of national
retail sales. Food service (restaurants and food stores) expenditures account for
approximately 10% to 15% of worker spending; however, on-line sales (15%)
and transportation related expenses (nearly 20%) account for the greatest share
of these expenditures.14 The balance of the retail expenditures (approximately
50% of the total) are spent in department stores, warehouse stores, drug stores,
electronic stores, personal care stores and other establishment types. Assuming
these workers account for 20% of the Moorpark workforce, which is the national
average, citywide employees would generate approximately $10 million to $15
million of retail sales annually. Given the magnitude of these expenditures, most
13 Source: SBE and KMA
14 Over 50% of workers do not make any expenditures near their place of work.
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To: David Bobardt, City of Moorpark August 26, 2016
Subject: City of Moorpark Market Opportunities Page 19
square feet of long-term demand. Ultimately, this data indicates Moorpark
residents are likely meeting their retail needs in other jurisdictions by shopping at
preferred tenants and taking advantage of agglomeration principles.
8. KMA prepared a sensitivity test of the retail demand projections. The analysis
considered both an increase in productivity by existing establishments and an
increase in citywide households. Assuming existing retailers increase sales 15%
by capturing more of resident expenditures, then citywide demand would be
approximately 374,000 square feet over the next 20 years. Assuming, a 15%
increase in citywide household formation over the next 20 years then the retail
demand would total 589,000 square feet.
9. KMA also contacted a number of retail brokers that are active in the market area.
The salient points from these conversations are provided below:
a. Many of the brokers indicated there is too much retail development in the
City. Further, the belief exists that some of this retail should be
considered excess and converted to residential, which is in high demand.
New residential development would benefit the remaining retail centers by
increasing the number of households in the City (greater buying power).
b. Overall vacancy rates in the City are believed to be very high, with
estimates ranging from 10% to 20%. Vacancy rates in the more
successful shopping centers, of which there is a limited number, are
estimated to be 5% or less.
c. Rents range considerably with much of the space ranging from $1.00 to
$2.00 per square foot.
d. There are limited opportunities for big box retailers because the
population in the market area is so low.
e. Demand may exist for entrepreneurial retail (e.g. "mom and pop") stores.
f. Opportunities and demand are very limited for the Old Town/High Street
area, as retailers would prefer a location on Los Angeles Avenue.
10. According to City Staff, the City lost Kmart, SavOn, Linens N Things, Staples, Big
Lots, Do It Center, Fresh n Easy, Albertson's and Radio Shack since 2002. In
addition, Dick's Sporting Goods is planning on leaving the City in 2017. Reasons
for these departures vary, including: bankruptcies, corporate retrenchment and/or
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poor performance of the Moorpark establishment. These retailers occupied a
significant amount of commercial space, which has been difficult for brokers to fill
given the previously discussed reasons.
Based the preceding research, the implications for the key establishment types are
summarized below:
1. Home Furnishings and Appliances —The City is projected to support a minimal
amount of home furnishings, home goods, appliances and electronic stores
(25,000 square feet) through 2035. In addition, the larger market area currently
shows a surplus of sales. Given these factors, limited opportunities for this type
of retail likely exist in the near-to mid-term.
2. Building Materials and Garden Equipment—The City is projected to support
approximately 73,000 square feet of this type of retail through 2035. However,
the market area currently shows a surplus of this type of retail. This would
indicate Moorpark residents are meeting their shopping needs outside of the City
boundaries. Given the existing market area competition, opportunities for this
type of retail may exist in the near-to mid-term for smaller establishments (e.g.
Orchard Supply Hardware, Ace Hardware, etc.). Larger format home
improvement stores like Home Depot and Lowe's are typically around 100,000
square feet. Demand from City residents would not reach this threshold during
the projection period.
3. Food and Beverage Stores—The City is projected to support approximately
86,000 square feet of this type of retail through 2035. While the market area for
these retailers is typically smaller(one to two miles), there is also demand in the
greater market area. Current demand in the City is only 32,000 square feet,
which is lower than the typical store format size for many food stores
(approximately 40,000 square feet); however, sufficient demand may exist for a
food store in the near- to mid-term. Given the high income and education levels
of City residents, potential tenants could include Pavilions, Whole Foods,
Sprout's, BevMo, Total Wine and other similar establishments; however, the low
population base may cause these retailers to select sites in nearby cities.
4. Apparel Stores—The City is projected to support approximately 101,000 square
feet of this type of retail through 2035. In addition, there is demand in the
immediate market. However, the larger ten-mile market area shows a surplus of
this type of retail, as many apparel stores are located in The Oaks and The Simi
Valley Town Center. This level of supply in the market area will likely limit
apparel opportunities in Moorpark to local serving establishments. These
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establishments would likely include locally owned boutiques. These
establishments are likely to be smaller in nature and could fill a modest amount
of in-line space in existing shopping centers and/or be potentially viable along
High Street. However, there are many challenges for small boutique businesses,
so long-term success is not guaranteed for many of these establishments. Ross
Dress for Less and Marshall's have outlets in nearby cities, so potential may exist
for these retailers. These retailers are similar to TJ Maxx, which is already in the
City, and would require approximately 25,000 to 30,000 square feet of space.
These retailers may be a viable alternative for currently vacant buildings along
Los Angeles Avenue.
5. General Merchandise Stores-The City is projected to support approximately
48,000 square feet of this type of retail through 2035. The three-mile market
area currently shows a significant amount of leakage for this type of retail;
however, the larger market area shows only moderate leakage. General
merchandise stores include warehouse stores (e.g. Costco and Sam's Club),
general retailers (e.g. Wal-Mart, Target and 99 Cents Only Stores) and
department stores (e.g. Macy's and JCPenney). Many of these stores are large
format and typically exceed 100,000 square feet, which is greater than the future
and regional market area demand. In addition, the department stores typically
agglomerate in regional and lifestyle retail centers. Given the existing market
area competition, limited opportunities for this type of retail may exist in the near-
to mid-term for smaller establishments (e.g. 99 Cents Only Stores,Wal-Mart
Neighborhood Market, etc.). Demand from City residents is unlikely to meet the
threshold for large format stores during the projection period.
6. Food Service and Drinking Places—The City is projected to support a healthy
amount of this retail through (75,000 square feet)through 2035. In addition,
office/business park employees spend approximately$3.0 million annually on
food, providing additional support to the local restaurant industry. The market
area shows fluctuating demand depending on the trade area; however, the trade
area for many food service and drinking spaces is typically less than three miles.
Food service tenants are typically smaller in nature, occupying in-line retail
spaces and pad sites. As such, this potential would be well suited for
opportunities in existing centers or along High Street in the near-to mid-term.
Further,these tenants can be good tenants for mixed-use, commerciaVresidential
developments.
7. Other Retail Group—This group includes small retailers such as books stores,
hobby stores, florists and other similar retailers. The City is projected to support
a reasonable amount of this retail through (47,000 square feet) through 2035.
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However, the three- and five-mile market areas show a surplus of these types of
stores. Given the current market area surplus, demand for this space is likely to
be limited in the near-to mid-term. Similar to food-services, these tenants are
typically smaller in nature, occupying in-line retail spaces. As such, the mid-to
long-term potential for this space would be well suited for opportunities in existing
centers or along High Street. Further, these tenants can be good tenants for
mixed-use, commercial/residential developments.
Brokers active in the City indicate an excess of commercial space in the community.
The current vacancy rates, rental rates and productivity levels further substantiate the
belief that the City's retail market is soft.
The current surplus/leakage analysis indicates support for 220,000 square feet of retail.
However, the distribution of demand across establishment types makes it insufficient to
support many tenant types. In addition, the five-mile market area is already absorbing
much of this demand, particularly for home furnishings/electronic/appliance stores,
building materials stores, sporting goods/hobby stores, general merchandise and
miscellaneous retailers. When the market area capture of these tenant types is
considered, the potential demand is only 140,000 square feet.
Based on current projections, citywide retail demand through 2035 totals 455,000 square
feet; however, much of this demand is currently being absorbed in the market area due
• to agglomeration principles and stronger locations. In fact, the current surplus of sales in
the five-mile market area for home furnishings &appliance stores, building materials
stores and other/miscellaneous retail is greater than the demand projected for the City
through 2035. When the productivity level of the market area establishments is
considered, the supported retail is only 310,000 square feet. Assuming the City captures
a share of this demand consistent with current levels, then the potential supported
development is approximately 200,000 square feet. Assuming the range of retail
demand estimated in the sensitivity test (374,000 to 589,000 square feet), the supported
retail would be 165,000 to 275,000 square feet. 16
The limited demand and current vacancies of 283,000 square feet, corroborate the
broker comments about an excess of retail space in the City. As such, the City may
consider the potential conversion of commercial in less desirable areas. This would
promote a healthier retail environment in those areas that are more successful.
Specifically, if the City were to promote the conversion of lesser performing commercial
16 This is particularly true for apparel stores, as the ten-mile market area shows a significant
surplus of these sales.
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centers to residential and/or mixed use, this would increase the buying power of the
market and benefit retailers.
OFFICE OVERVIEW
The information compiled for the office overview can be summarized as follows:
1. As shown in Table 15, office vacancy rates are approximately 14.4% in Ventura
County. Over the past year, there has been limited new construction and only
modest absorption. Within the Simi Valley/Moorpark market area, the vacancy
rate is 20.3% and rents are $1.82 per square foot compared to the County
average of$1.97 per square foot.
2. As shown in Table 16, rents in the City range from $.75 to$2.85 per square foot.
The weighted average is $2.11 per square foot. These rents are higher than the
market area average.
3. Table 17 shows office demand projections for a five-mile market area, which
indicates support for 325,000 square feet of office through 2035 (20 years) based
on employment growth. This support would include filling existing, proposed and
future office developments.
Cumulative Office Demand
(Square Feet)
2015-2020 2015-2025 2015-2030 2015-2035
Cumulative Office Demand 71,200 148,700 233,100 325,200
Overall, the office market is still recovering from the recession, as vacancy rates and
rents are moving off their 2010-2012 levels and absorption is still relatively slow;
therefore, limited office development has occurred in Ventura County over the past year.
Further, it should be noted that the current plans for many businesses is to reduce the
amount of office space required per employee. When designing buildings, architects
historically estimated up to 250 square feet of space per employee; however, many are
now using the 200 square feet per employee assumed herein and some design firms are
going as low as 175 square feet per employee. These changes reflect the continuing
evolution of technology and its ability to free employees from a desk by working off-site,
working at home and/or hoteling. Given these factors, the higher vacancy rates in the
market area and the small population and employment base in the City, market
opportunities are anticipated to be limited in the near-to mid-term to smaller professional
space or institutional development. Larger scale office demand is likely to be driven by
factors outside of normal market conditions (employment growth), as companies will
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sometimes choose locations based on business decisions (e.g. proximity to decision
makers' residences) and not market factors. Additional demand may also result from the
expansion of a specific business that exceeds the anticipated growth within its industry.
INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW
The information compiled for the industrial overview can be summarized as follows:
1. As shown in Table 18, industrial vacancy rates are approximately 5.6% in
Ventura County. Over the past year, there has been limited new construction;
however, absorption has been very healthy. Within the Simi Valley/Moorpark
market area, the vacancy rate is 5.3% and the area accounts for 50% of the
countywide absorptions. Market area rents are$.60 per square foot compared to
the County average of$.65 per square foot.
2. As shown in Table 19, rents in the City range from $.40 to $1.00 per square foot.
The weighted average is$.41 per square foot. These rents are lower than the
market area average.
The Southern California industrial market is very healthy. Within Ventura County, the
market is strong, with an average vacancy rate 5.6% and high absorption levels. In
particular, the local market area is very healthy with vacancy rates that are lower than
the County(5.3%) and strong absorption (377,000 square feet), which account for 50%
of the County total. Given these factors, market demand is likely to be strong in the
near-to mid-term, particularly for logistics related industrial development. However,
industrial development is unlikely to have a significant impact on the success of the
City's retailers, as the typical employee to space ratio in these buildings ranges from
1,000 to 2,000 square feet per employee.
LODGING OVERVIEW
The lodging market conditions are summarized below. The analysis herein relies on
data provided by PKF Consulting, which is a leading hotel market data firm. Moorpark is
included in their Simi Valley market area; however, the City is also located near
Thousand Oaks. This is an important point of distinction, as the Thousand Oaks/Agoura
Hills hotels generate much higher Average Daily Rates(ADR) and occupancy levels
than Simi Valley, due to its location on U.S. Route 101 and prevalence of high tech and
biotech companies, which are significant demand stimulators. For the purposes of this
study, KMA has shown the lodging performance factors for the Simi Valley market area,
with the Thousand Oaks and Camarillo market areas provided for context.
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1. As shown in Table 20, the hotel market has steadily improved since 2010
throughout Ventura County. This improvement is consistent with patterns in
California and across the country. Historic occupancy rates for the Simi Valley,
Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills and Camarillo market areas have trended above
than the County average, with the Simi Valley market area projected to achieve a
76.7% occupancy level in 2016.
Projected Average Occupancy—201617
Simi Valley Market Area 76.7%
Camarillo Market Area 75.2%
Thousand Oaks Market Area 78.8%
Ventura County 74.5%
2. As shown in Table 21, the ADR for Simi Valley and Camarillo market areas are
lower than the County average; however, Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills is
significantly higher: •
• Projected Average Daily Rate—20168
Simi Valley Market Area $108.68
Camarillo Market Area $114.55
Thousand Oaks Market Area $164.14
Ventura County $124.52
3. As shown in Table 22, the lower ADR results in a relatively low Revenue per
Available Room (RevPAR—ADR *Occupancy)for Simi Valley and Camarillo
when compared to Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills and the County.
Projected RevPAR—20168
Simi Valley Market Area $83.36
Camarillo Market Area $86.14
Thousand Oaks Market Area $129.34
Ventura County $92.77
4. As shown in Table 23, the compound annual change in demand for the regional
markets and the County. As summarized below, demand increased at a much
77 Source: PKF 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast
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faster rate in the Camarillo and Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills market areas when
compared to the Simi Valley market area.
Demand Change—
(CAAG) 2010-2016
Simi Valley Market Area 1.80%
Camarillo Market Area 3.29%
Thousand Oaks Market Area 2.97%
Ventura County 2.38%
5. Given the hotel market conditions, KMA estimated hotel demand in the Simi
Valley market area over the next 20 years. The analysis is summarized in Table
24, which shows potential demand for 356 to 556 hotel rooms in the market area
during this period.
The Simi Valley market area has not seen an increase in the number of hotel rooms over
the past five years. However, a new Hampton Inn & Suites is planned for Simi Valley on
the 2500 block of Cochran Street and a 108-room Fairfield Hotel is planned for
Moorpark.18 Further, the lodging performance of the Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills
market area shows very healthy demand and rates. The demand analysis indicates a
healthy amount of hotel potential over the next 20 years. For this reason, the two new
hotel projects are currently being considered in the market area. If these projects
proceed, they will account for a healthy share of the local near to mid-term demand.
However, the healthy demand and rates in the Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills market area
may provide additional opportunities for Moorpark. It is important to note, that the ADR
and occupancy levels in the Simi Valley market area modest. Therefore, even if a hotel
has market feasibility, it may be difficult to achieve financial feasibility because the
RevPAR is unable to support acquisition and construction costs.
BUILDING AND LAND COMPS
Over the past two years relatively few commercial land and building sales have occurred
in the City.
1. As shown in Table 25, the average price for retail buildings was $240 per square
foot, with an imputed land value of$25 per square foot. These transactions
include the sales of Mission Bell Plaza and Moorpark Town Center.
18 Source: PKF Southern California Lodging Forecast
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2. As shown in Table 26, only one office building sale occurred during this period.
The small, 2,000 square foot building sold for$350 per square foot.
3. As shown in Table 27, five industrial buildings sold during this period for an
average price per square foot of$140 and an imputed land value of$50 per
square foot.
4. As shown in Table 28, only one commercial land sale occurred during this period.
The 62,300 square foot site on Los Angeles Avenue sold for$1.6 million, $26 per
square foot. There are improvements on this property, but the value was based
unimproved land due to the obsolescence of the structures.
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LIMITING CONDITIONS
1. The analysis contained in this document is based, in part, on data from
secondary sources such as state and local government, planning agencies, real
estate brokers, and other third parties. While KMA believes that these sources
are reliable, we cannot guarantee their accuracy.
2. The analysis assumes that neither the local nor national economy will experience
a major recession. If an unforeseen change occurs in the economy, the
conclusions contained herein may no longer be valid.
3. The findings are based on economic rather than political considerations.
Therefore, they should be construed neither as a representation nor opinion that
government approvals for development can be secured.
4. Market feasibility is not equivalent to financial feasibility; other factors apart from
the level of demand for a land use are of crucial importance in determining
feasibility. These factors include the cost of acquiring sites, relocation burdens,
traffic impacts, remediation of toxics (if any), and mitigation measures required
through the approval process.
5. Development opportunities are assumed to be achievable during the specified
time frame. A change in development schedule requires that the conclusions
contained herein be reviewed for validity.
6. The analysis, opinions, recommendations and conclusions of this document are
KMA's informed judgment based on market and economic conditions as of the
date of this report. Due to the volatility of market conditions and complex
dynamics influencing the economic conditions of the building and development
industry, conclusions and recommended actions contained herein should not be
relied upon as sole input for final business decisions regarding current and future
development and planning.
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TABLE 1
2015 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Population
3 Mile Ring 38,700 Population
5 Mile Ring 80,100
10 Mile Ring 361,200 500,000
Moorpark 35,700 400,000
Ventura County 849,600
300,000
200,000 --
100,000
0
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring
Households
3 Mile Ring 11,800 Households
5 Mile Ring 26,500
10 Mile Ring 123,800 150,000
Moorpark 10,800 120,000
Ventura County 275,300
90,000
60,000
30,000
0
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring
Average Persons Per Hhold
3 Mile Ring 3.27 Average Persons Per Household
5 Mile Ring 2.97
10 Mile Ring 2.89 4.00
Moorpark 3.30
Ventura County 3.05 3.00
2.00 ■ ■
1.00 • •
0.00 ■ ■
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring Moorpark Ventura County
•
Source:Claritas
•
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;1;8/25/2016 Page 1 of 33
106
APPENDIX 1 -TABLE 1(Continued)
2015 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Average Household Income Average Household Income
3 Mile Ring $122,600
5 Mile Ring $123,300 $150,000
10 Mile Ring $115,100
$120,000
min
Moorpark $117,600
MEIIMIE–MilVentura County $96,700 $90,000 ■ ■
$60,000 ■ II$30,0$00 ■ ■
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring Moorpark Ventura County
Median Household Income
Median Household Income
3 Mile Ring $97,775 $125,000
5 Mile Ring $96,821
10 Mile Ring $89,211 $100,000
Moorpark $95,878 $75,000 m
Ventura County $73,044 . ■
$50,000 . .
$25,000 ■ ■
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring Moorpark Ventura County
Household Income Distribution
Under$25,000:5,000 to$49,999 $50,000 to$99,999 $100,000 to$149,999 $150,000+
3 Mile Ring 8.48% 12.15% 30.78% 23.38% 25.22%
5 Mile Ring 10.02% 12.99% 28.80% 21.66% 26.54%
10 Mile Ring 11.86% 15.24% 28.93% 20.31% 23.66%
Moorpark 8.59% 12.52% 31.56% 23.98% 23.35%
Ventura County 15.27% 18.56% 31.57% 17.51% 17.09%
Household Income Distribution
40.00%
30.00% — ,N�
II A
I
20.00% = ■e —
II Y.M: M,li■= M M 111171
10.00% IF 11111MM.■� 1111:M ■ M:= II II■ M..M■= 01 M
0.00%
Under$25,000 $25,000 to$49,999 $50,000 to$99,999 $100,000 to$149,999 $150,000+
03 Mile Ring 05 Mile Ring 010 Mile Ring °Moorpark IIIVentura County
Source:Claritas
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename: Moorpark Market Tables-v4;1;8/25/2016 Page 2 of 33
107
APPENDIX 1-TABLE 1(Continued)
2015 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Age Distribution
Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 to 64 Over 65
3 Mile Ring 24.87% 23.77% 27.16% 14.14% 10.09%
5 Mile Ring 22.62% 22.84% 26.39% 14.23% 13.93%
10 Mile Ring_ 22.84% 21.07% 27.35% 13.85% 14.89%
Moorpark 25.31% 24.06% 27.51% 13.61% 9.50%
Ventura County 24.42% 23.02% 26.56% 12.57% 13.42%
Age Distribution
30.00%
20.00% , Y Y.i =. - Y M
Y M I MM■ Y.■
Y., = YN = YY=000%
IN= IIIII :u1_ ! = ' 1 ,YY ■ Y0 MY ■ YM
0.00%
Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 54 5510 84 Over 85
B3 Mile Ring ■5 Mile Ring 010 Mile Ring aMoorpark aVentura County
Education Level of Residents Over 25 Years
No HS Degree HS Degree Some College College Grad.
3 Mile Ring 11.36% 16.60% 33.05% 38.98%
5 Mile Ring 8.74% 15.93% 31.84% 43.50%
10 Mile Ring 9.38% 16.71% 32.81% 41.10%
Moorpark 12.00% 16.96% 33.42% 37.62%
Ventura County 17.40% 18.39% 32.78% 31.43%
Education Level of Residents Over 25 Years
45.00%
30.00% - - Y 9 - ..,
M M Y 9 I
15.00% Y..Y.! 1 Y• = Y Y = ■■I
Y.M.! 1 Y.Y Y Y Y Y I
Y.Y? I.Y;II Y Y 8 Y I
0.00% - - _
No HS Degree HS Degree Some College College Grad.
e3 Mile Ring 115 Mile Ring 010 Mile Ring OMoorpark ■Ventura County
Source:Claritas
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;1;8/25/2016 Page 3 of 33
108
APPENDIX 1 -TABLE 1 (Continued)
2015 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Race Classification
White Black American Indian Asian and PI Other Hispanic*
3 Mile Ring 75.27% 1.52% 0.84% 6.78% 15.58% 31.68%
5 Mile Ring 78.18% 1.56% 0.65% 7.15% 12.45% 24.63%
10 Mile Ring 74.77% 1.48% 0.59% 8.94% 14.23% 25.43%
Moorpark 74.62% 1.54% 0.86% 6.85% 16.14% 33.16%
Ventura County 67.20% 1.87% 1.02% 7.27% 22.63% 42.30%
Race Classification
80.00% _
60.00% _ �`,
40.00% = :""�` - -
- rl;
r.::r:,
20.00% = Y_;
II, - V f�
0.00% ,
White Black American Indian Asian and PI Other Hispanic*
03 Mile Ring ■5 Mile Ring a10 Mile Ring °Moorpark °Ventura County
Hispanic population percentage calculated separately from other races. In the 200 US Census,census takers were first asked to identify
their race as White,Black,Ameircan Indian,Asian,Pacific Islander,or Other,and then asked if they identify as Hispanic/Latino or Non-
Hispanic/Latino.
Source:Claritas
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;1;8/25/2016 Page 4 of 33
109
TABLE 2
MARKET AREA POPULATION&HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
POPULATION
Change
2015 2020 Total Percent
3 Mile Ring 38,676 40,176 1,500 3.9%
5 Mile Ring 80,069 82,800 2,731 3.4%
10 Mile Ring 361,190 374,768 13,578 3.8%
Moorpark 35,735 37,168 1,433 4.0%
Ventura County 849,566 880,563 30,997 3.6%
HOUSEHOLDS
Change
2015 2020 Total Percent
3 Mile Ring 11,814 12,300 486 4.1%
5 Mile Ring 26,451 27,449 998 3.8%
10 Mile Ring 123,788 128,658 4,870 3.9%
Moorpark 10,836 11,292 456 4.2%
Ventura County 275,297 285,729 10,432 3.8%
Source: Claritas
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-y4:2:8/25/2016 Page 5 of 33
110
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TABLE 4
SCAG POPULATION,HOUSEHOLD&EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION CHANGES
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNI11TES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Population
2012-2020 2020-2040 2012-2040
Change CAAG Gross CAAG Gross CAAG Gross
Camarillo city 0.6% 3,200 0.7% 10,400 0.7% 13,600
Fillmore city 0.8% 1,200 0.4% 1,800 0.5% 3,000
Moorpark city 1.4% 4,200 0.5% 4,000 0.8% 8,200
Ojai city 0.3% 200 0.4% 700 0.4% 900
Oxnard city 1.2% 20,100 0.4% 17,100 0.6% 37.200
Port Hueneme city 0.2% 300 0.1% 300 0.1% 600
San Buenaventura 0.7% 5,800 0.5% 12,800 0.6% 18,600
Santa Paula city 1.8% 4,600 0.7% 5,200 1.0% 9,800
Simi Valley city 0.4% • 4,100 0.5% 13,200 0.5% 17.300
Thousand Oaks city 0.2% 2,000 0.1% 1,900 0.1% 3,900
Unincorporated 0.7% 5,300 0.5% 11,600 0.6% 16,900
Ventura County 0.7% 51,000 0.4% 79,000 0.5% 130,000
Households
2012-2020 2020-2040 2012-2040
Change CAAG Gross CAAG Gross CAAG Gross
Camarillo city 0.6% 1,200 0.8% 4,200 0.7% 5,400
Fillmore city 1.2% 500 0.5% 600 0.7% 1,100
Moorpark city 1.6% 1,400 0.4% 1,100 0.8% 2,500
Ojai city 0.4% 100 0.2% 100 0.2% 200
Oxnard city 1.2% 5,000 0.4% 5,000 0.7% 10,000
Port Hueneme city 0.3% 200 0.0% 0 0.1% 200
San Buenaventura 0.6% 2,000 0.6% 5,700 0.6% 7,700
Santa Paula city 1.9% 1.400 0.8% 1,600 1.1% 3,000
Simi Valley city 0.5% 1,600 0.5% 4,500 0.5% 6,100
Thousand Oaks city 0.2% 700 0.1% 600 0.1% 1,300
Unincorporated 0.7% 1,800 0.5% 3,600 0.6% 5,400
Ventura County 0.7% 15,900 0.5% 27,000 0.5% 42,900
Employment
;012-2020 2020-2040 2012-2040
Change CAAG Gross CAAGGrros CAAG Gross
Camarillocay 1.8% 4,700 0.8% 6,800 1.0% 11,500
Fillmore city 4.0% 1.100 1.3% 1,200 2.1% 2,300
Moorpark city 3.0% 3,000 0.7% 2,300 1.4% 5,300
Ojai city 0.0% 0 0.2% 200 0.1% 200
Oxnard city 2.0% 9,900 0.8% 11,200 1.1% 21,100
Port Hueneme city 0.4% 200 0.1% 100 0.2% 300
San Buenaventura 0.4% 2,000 0.3% 3,300 0.3% 5,300
Santa Paula city 3.0% 2,100 0.8% 1,800 1.5% 3,900
Simi Valley city 2.5% 9,700 0.6% 7,400 1.2% 17,100
Thousand Oaks city 1.0% 5,500 0.5% 8,200 0.7% 13,700
Unincorporated 1.5% 3,900 0.4% 3,000 0.7% 6,900
Ventura County 1.5% 42.100 0.6% 45,500 0.8% 87,600
Source:SCAG,KMA -
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;4;8/25/2016 Page 7 of 33
112
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TABLE 7
SHARE OF TOTAL BUSINESSES&EMPLOYMENT
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
3 Mile Ring 5 Mile Ring 10 Mile Ring Moorpark Ventura County
Bus. Emp. Bus. Emp. Bus. Emp. Bus. Emp. Bus. Emp.
Agriculture 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
Mining 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Construction 12.2%. 7.6% 11.8% 6.9% 9.4% 5.2% 12.1% 7.6% 8.5%. 4.6%
Manufacturing 5.5% 10.7% 5.3% 10.1% 3.8% 11.9% 5.1% 10.5% 3.8% 9.6%
Wholesale Trade 4.7% 8.3% 4.3% 6.1% 3.5% 5.7% 5.0% 8.3% 3.5% 5.9%
Transportation&Warehousing 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3%
Intonation 2.3% 2.9% 2.0% 2.8% 1.8% 3.9% 2.3% 2.9% 1.7% " 2.5%
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 4.4% 2.7% 4.3% 2.7% 4.8% 2.7% 4.7% 2.6% 5.1% 2.8%
ProfessionallSCUTech Services 9.3% 3.8% 10.1% 4.7% 12.4% 6.5% 9.0% 4.0% 11.3% 5.7%
Management of Companies 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Administrative/Support Services 6.4% 4.6% 5.9% 4.3% 4.6% 3.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.6% 3.3%
Educational Services 2.5% 10.0% 2.3% 10.2% 2.0% 6.0% 2.7% 10.7% 2.1% 6.3%
Healthcare&Social Assistance 9.9% 5.1% 14.2% 8.8% 17.6% 11.4% 10.3% 5.1% 16.7% 11.744
Arts,Entertainment,Recreation 2.2% 1.9°4 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%
Retail Trade 13.8% 15.4% 14.3% 18.1% 13.9% 16.6% 13.5% 14.8% 14.4% 15.6%
Motor Vehicle&Parts Dealers 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 3.0% 1.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2%
Fumiture/ome Furnishings 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5%
Electronic/Appliance Stores 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2%
Building Material/Garden 2.2% 1.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8%
Food&Beverage Stores 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 2.4%
Heall h&Personal Care Stores 1.2% 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.2% 1.6%
Gasoline Stations 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Clothing&Accessories Stores 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 1.5%
Sport/Hobby/Music/Book Stores 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7%
General Merchandise Stores 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 2.5% 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 2.1%
Miscellaneous Retail Stores 2.1% 5.3% 2.0% 4.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 5.2% 2.2% 1.4%
• Nonstore Retailers 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Finance&Insurance 6.3% 9.5% 5.7% 5.8% 8.3% 5.8% 6.1% 9.2% 7.1% 3.9%
Monetary Authorities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0%
CreditAntemrediation Activities 2.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.5% 2.6% 1.3% 2.3% 0.6% 2.6% 1.1%
SedComm Contracts&Fin.Inv 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Insurance Carriers 2.6% 0.8% 3.0% 1.1% 3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 0.8% 3.3% 2.0%
Funds/Trusts&Other Finance 0.2% 6.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.2%
Accomodation&Food Services 7.0% 9.3% 4.9% 7.5% 4.6% 7.4% 6.9% 9.1% 5.3% 7.9%.
Accomodation 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2%
Food Services&Drinking Places 6.7% 9.2% 4.6% 6.7% 4.3% 6.6% 6.7% 9.0% 4.9% 6.7%
Other Services(Non Public Ad.) 10.3% 4.5% 9.9% 4.7% 9.0% 7.5% 10.9% 5.1% 10.1% 6.1%
Repair&Maintenance 3.6% 1.6% 4.3% 1.9% 3.3% 4.3% 3.6% 1.5% 3.5% 2.8%
Pesonal&Laundry Serv. 4.3% 2.0% 3.6% 1.6% 3.8%• 1.9% 4.7% 2.0% 4.1% 1.8%
Religious/Grant/Civic Org. 2.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.9% 1.3% 2.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.6%
Public Administration 1.0% 3.0% 0.9% 4.1% 0.8% 2.6% 1.2% 3.0% 1.5% 9.6%
Total Businesses 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source:Claritas;Keyser Marston Associates
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates, Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;7;8/25/2016 Page 11 of 33
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TABLE 9
TOTAL PERMITS&SALES PER RETAIL PERMIT
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Total Permits •
2013
Thousand Regional Ventura State of
Moorpark Simi Valley Oaks Market County California
Motor Vehicles and Parts DIrs 22 85 108 215 586 32,324
Home Furnishings&Appliances 19 84 161 264 676 38,164
Building Material&Garden Eqpmt 16 45 41 102 353 16,323
Food&Beverage Stores 25 81 85 191 644 31,132
Gasoline Stations 8 29 30 67 187 9,798
Clothing&Clothing Accessories 21 122 231 374 1,085 62,164
General Merchandise Stores 7 38 51 96 307 15,031
Food Services&Drinking Plcs 78 266 337 681 1,900 96,594
Other Retail Group 282 1 042 1 460 2 784 8 547 363.749
Retail Stores Total 478 1,792 2,504 4,774 14,285 665,279
i
Taxable Sales Per Permit
2013
Thousand Regional Ventura State of
Moorpark Simi Valley Oaks Market County California
Motor Vehicles and Parts Dirs $1,176,182 $2,479,341 $5,463,620 $3,845,074 $3,137,563 $2,103,280
Home Furnishings&Appliances 891,579 511,357 784,901 705,542 709,046 665,837
Building Material&Garden Eqpmt 494,313 2,503,000 2,508,585 2,190,157 1,938,487 1,818,296
Food&Beverage Stores 771,960 1,044,914 1,549,424 1,233,707 890,399 812,322
Gasoline Stations 6,762,750 6,484,414 7,118,200 6,801,433 6,460,465 5,803,285
Clothing&Clothing Accessories . 642,667 300,574 794,411 624,799 836,524 561,708
General Merchandise Stores 6,098,143 7,436,342 2,962,412 4,961,990 3,701,912 3,421,668
Food Services&Drinking Plcs 591,859 664,286 874,401 759,968 658,391 649,899
Other Retail Group 136,046 103,875 161,371 137,286 119,649 132,198
Retail Stores Average $554,056 $693,754 $810,465 $740,983 $637,132 $604,919
Permits per 1,000 Residents
2013
Population 34,970 125,774 128,356 289,100 836,864 38,030,609
Thousand Regional Ventura State of
Moorpark Simi Valley Oaks Market County California
Motor Vehicles and Parts DIrs • 0.63 0.68 0.84 0.74 0.70 0.85
Home Furnishings&Appliances 0.54 0.67 1.25 0.91 0.81 1.00
Building Material&Garden Eqpmt 0.46 0.36 0.32 0.35 0.42 0.43
Food&Beverage Stores 0.71 0.64 0.66 0.66 0.77 0.82
Gasoline Stations 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.26
Clothing&Clothing Accessories 0.60 0.97 1.80 1.29 1.30 1.63
General Merchandise Stores 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.33 0.37 0.40
Food Services&Drinking Plcs 2.23 2.11 2.63 2.36 2.27 2.54
Other Retail Group 8.06 8.28 11.37 9.63 10.21 9.56
Retail Stores Average 13.67 14.25 19.51 16.51 17.07 17.49
Source:California State Board of Equalization;and California State Department of Finance
'Per the CA State Board of Equalization,for prose categories listed as'$O",the sales are included in the"Other Retail Stores"category.
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;9;8/25/2016 Page 13 043.1.8
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TABLE 13
ESTIMATED RETAIL DEMAND(SQUARE FEET OF SUPPORTABLE DEVELOPMENT)
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
3-Mile 5-Miles 10-Miles
Home Fumishings/Electronic/Appliances 0 0 0
Building Material, Garden Equip Stores 0 0 0
Food and Beverage Stores 123,269 307,846 494,741
Health and Personal Care Stores 47,578 119,619 204,311
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 78,597 190,674 0
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores 0 5,443 91,206
General Merchandise Stores 101,931 18,568 54,463
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 0 0 87,109
Foodservice and Drinking Places 0 118.902 0
Total(Square Feet) 351,376 761,052 931,829
•
Source: Claritas; KMA
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4; 13;8/25/2016 Page 18 0132 3
TABLE 14
MARKET AREA RETAIL LEASE RATE COMPARABLES
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
SF
No. Address City Property Type Asking Type Available
1 888 New Los Angeles Moorpark Neighborhood Ctr. $27.00 NNN 2,748
2 252 E. Los Angeles Moorpark Retail $24.00 NNN 900
3 302 W. Los Angeles Moorpark Strip Retail $35.35 NNN 975
4 525 Los Angeles Moorpark Community CU. $27.00 NNN 2,816
5 476 Los Angeles Moorpark Retail $19.20 MG 1,935
6 593 W. Los Angeles Moorpark Community Ctr. $17.40 NNN 4,995
$19.80 NNN 4,950
$24.00 NNN 1,011
$21.00 NNN 1,170
$24.00 NNN 1,122
$24.00 NNN 2,244
7 6591 Collins Drive Moorpark Neighborhood Ctr. $18.00 NNN 9,154
8 742 New Los Angeles Moorpark Community Ctr. Neg. NNN 20,721
9 706-790 Los Angeles Moorpark Community Ctr. $21.00 MG 23,224
10 14701 Princeton Moorpark Strip Center $15.00 NNN 6,340
11 530 E. Los Angeles Moorpark Street Retail $24.00 NNN 6,240
$21.00 NNN 2,800
12 111-165 Poindexter Moorpark Retail $11.40 NNN 1,000
$12.00 NNN 1,000
13 209 W. Los Angeles Moorpark Power Center $21.60 NNN 1,033
14 4215 Tierra Rejada Moorpark Community Ctr. $17.88 NNN 1,394
$21.00 NNN 1,382
$23.40 NNN 1,471
15 481 E. High St. Moorpark Street Retail $18.00 NNN 960
16 14711 Princeton Moorpark Neighborhood Ctr. $15.00 NNN 7,242
17 14721 Princeton Moorpark Neighborhood Ctr. $15.00 NNN 1,760
18 142-144 W. Los Angeles Moorpark Strip Center $30.00 NNN 3,940
19 706 Los Angeles Moorpark Anchor $18.00 NNN 45,022
Lease Rate Range $11.40-$35.35
Weighted Average Lease Rate $16.93
Source: LoopNet.com 2015
•
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates.Inc.
•
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;14;8/25/2016 Page 19 of 33
124
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TABLE 16
MARKET AREA OFFICE LEASE RATE COMPARABLES
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Asking
No. Address City Property Type Rate Type SF Available
1 530 Moorpark Moorpark Office $21.00 MG 3,570
2 5285 Kazuko Ct Moorpark Office $11.40 IG 800
3 209 W. Los Anglees Moorpark Office $21.60 NNN 1,033
4 5301 N. Commerce Moorpark Office $14.40 MG 550
5 635 Los Angeles Moorpark Medical Office $34.20 FSG 75,082
6 301 Science Dr. Moorpark Office $22.20 FSG 2,938
7 301 Science Dr. Moorpark Office $26.09 FSG 736
8 5069 Maureen Ln Moorpark Office $15.00 MG 5,384
9 14711 Princeton Moorpark Office $15.00 NNN 7,242
10 14701 Princeton Moorpark Medical Office $15.00 NNN 3,832
11 484 E. Los Angeles Moorpark Office $21.00 MG 2,049
12 609 Science Dr. Moorpark Office $9.00 MG 22,100
13 646 Flinn Ave. Moorpark Office $10.68 MG 4,924
Lease Rate Range $9.00-$34.20
Weighted Average Lease Rate $25.40
•
Source:LoopNet.com
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;16;8/25/2016 Page 21 of 33
126
TABLE 17
POTENTIAL OFFICE DEMAND WITHIN A FIVE MILE RADIUS
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
-Estimated Office Demand-
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing
Employment 634 671 709 751 794
Change 37 39 41 43
Office Employment Percentage 80% 80% 80% 80%
Square Feet/Employee 200 200 200 201
Total Square Footage 5,900 6,200 6,600 7,000
Professional&Business Services
Employment 2,087 2,306 2,549 2,817 3,113
Change 219 242 268 296
Office Employment Percentage 80% 80% 80% 80%
Square Feet/Employee 200 200 200 201
Total Square Footage 35,100 38,800 42,900 47,600
Finance&Insurance
Employment 1,336 1,436 1,544 1,660 1,785
Change 100 108 116 125
Office Employment Percentage 80% 80% 80% 80%
Square Feet/Employee 200 200 200 200
Total Square Footage 16,100 17,300 18,600 19,900
Balance of Employment
Employment 19,073 20,485 22,002 23,632 25,382
Change 1,412 1,517 1,629 1,750
Office Employment Percentage 5% 5% 5% 5%
Square Feet/Employee 200 200 200 201
Total Square Footage 14,100 15,200 16,300 17,600
Total
Employment 23,130 24,899 26,805 28,859 31,073
Change 1,769 1,906 2,054 2,214
Total Square Footage 71,200 77,500 84,400 )92,100
Total Square Footage Through Term of Projection 71,200 148,700 233,100 325,200
Source:Projections based on California EDD employment projections(2012-2022)for Ventura County.Employment Percentage and square
footage assumptidns made by KMA.
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;17;8/25/2016 Page 22 of 33
127
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TABLE 19
MARKET AREA INDUSTRIAL LEASE RATE COMPARABLES
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Asking
No. Address City Property Type Rate Type SF Available
1 31 Poindexter Moorpark ndustrial Neg IG 16,383
2 5146 Commerce Moorpark ndustrial $11.04 MG 3,606
3 11953 Challenger Ct. Moorpark ndustrial $10.20 MG 11,397
4 555 Spring Rd. Moorpark ndustrial $8.40 NNN 3,900
5 650 Flinn Ave. Moorpark ndustrial $12.00 MG 1,400
6 709 Science Moorpark ndustrial $4.68 NNN 253,479
7 700 Science Dr. Moorpark ndustrial $4.68 NNN 152,786
8 353 Science Dr. Moorpark ndustrial $10.80 IG 8,470
9 646 Flinn Ave. Moorpark ndustrial $10.68 MG 4,924
Lease Rate Range $4.68-$12.00
Weighted Average Lease Rate $4.93
Source:LoopNet.com
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4; 19;8/25/2016 Page 24 of 33
129
TABLE 20
REGIONAL HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES'
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Thousand Oaks/
Simi Valley Camarillo Agoura Hills Ventura County
2010 68.9% 61.8% 66.2% 64.5%
2011 70.1% 64.0% 72.9% 64.4%
2012 71.2% 67.6% 74.5% 66.7%
2013 71.7% 67.8% 74.6% 68.0%
2014 72.2% 74.1% 77.8% 72.3%
2015 E 75.9% 74.3% 78.4% 73.7%
2016 F 76.7% 75.2% 78.8% 74.5%
Average 71.7% 68.3% 74.1% 68.3%
E-Estimate
F-Forecast
(1)Source:PKF'The 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast'
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;20;8/25/2016 Page 25 of 33 1 3 0
TABLE 21
REGIONAL HOTEL AVERAGE DAILY RATE
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTIJNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Thousand Oaks/
Simi Valley Camarillo Agoura Hills Ventura County
2010 $90.04 $88.30 $119.49 $98.21
2011 $92.31 $89.93 $121.30 $98.07
2012 $93.38 $90.82 $126.11 $100.03
2013 $96.47 $95.40 $132.26 $101.71
2014 $97.73 $105.24 $143.56 $109.43
2015E $104.00 $110.15 $154.56 $118.26
2016 F $108.68 $114.55 $164.14 $124,52
Average $97.52 $99.20 $137.35 $107.18
E-Estimate
F-Forecast
(1)Source:PKF"The 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast"
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;21;8/25/2016 Page 26 of 33 1 31
TABLE 22
REGIONAL HOTEL ANNUAL REVPAR(occupancy x room rate)
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Thousand Oaks/
Simi Valley Camarillo Agoura Hills Ventura County
2010 $62.01 $54.56 $79.07 $63.34
2011 $64.70 $57.52 $88.42 $63.20
2012 $66.53 $61.35 $93.99 $66.69
2013 $69.17 $64.65 $98.66 $69.16
2014 $70.61 $78.03 $111.66 $79.17 •
2015E $78.95 $81.82 $121.46 $87.16
2016 F $83.33 $86.15 $129.40 $92.81
Avenge $70.76 $69.15 $103.24 $74.50
E-Estimate
F-Forecast
(1)Source:PKF"The 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast"
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;22;8/25/2016 Page 27 of 33 1 3 2
TABLE 23
REGIONAL HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE'
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNTfITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Occupied Occupied
Avenge Annual Room Nights Room Nights RevPar
Occupancy Daily Rate S.ga a Per Year Change RevPar Change
Simi Valley
2010 68.9% $90.04 207,320 142,791 $62.04
2011 70.1% $92.31 207,320 145,319 1.8% $64.71 4.3%
2012 71.2% $93.38 207,320 147,701 1.6% $66.49 2.7%
2013 71.7% $96.47 207,320 148,657 0.6% $69.17 4.0%
2014 72.2% $97.73 207,320 149,787 0.8% $70.56 2.0%
2015 E 75.9% $104.00 207,320 157,388 5.1% $78.94 11.9%
2016 F 76.7% $108.68 207,320 158,962 1.0% $83.36 5.6%
CAC 2010-2016 3.19% 0.00% 1.80% 5.05%
Camarillo
2010 61.8% $88.30 317,550 196,213 $54.57
2011 64.0% $89.93 317,550 203,130 3.5% $57.56 5.5%
2012 67.6% $90.82 317,550 214,529 5.6% $61.39 6.7%
2013 67.8% $95.40 317,550 215,199 0.3% $64.68 5.4%
2014 74.1% $105.24 317,550 235,427 9.4% $77.98 20.6%
2015 E 74.3% $110.15 317,550 235,900 0.2% $81.84 4.9%
2016 F 75.2% $114.55 316,820 238,258 1.0% $86.14 5.3%
CAC 2010-2016 4.43% -0.04% 3.29% 7.91%
Thousand Oaks/Agoura Hills
2010 66.2% $119.49 664,300 439,555 $79.10
2011 72.9% $121.30 664,300 484,218 10.2% $88.43 11.8%
2012 74.5% $126.11 664,300 495,145 2.3% $93.95 • 6.2%
2013 74.6% $132.26 664,665 495,800 0.1% $98.67 5.0%
2014 77.8% $143.56 664,665 516,984 4.3% $111.69 13.2%
2015 E 78.4% $154.56 664,665 521,371 0.8% $121.18 8.5%
2016 F 78.8% $164.14 664,665 523,978 0.5% $129.34 6.7%
CAC 2010-2016 5.43% 0.01% 2.97% 8.54%
Ventura County
2010 64.5% $98.21 1,658,195 1,069,444 $63.35
2011 64.4% $98.07 1,673,890 1,078,694 0.9% $63.16 -0.3%
2012 66.7% $100.03 1,673,890 1,115,862 3.4% $66.72 5.6%
2013 68.0% $101.71 1,673,890 1,138,217 2.0% $69.16 3.7%
2014 72.3% $109.43 1,673,525 1,210,688 6.4% $79.12 14,4%
2015 E 73.7% $118.26 1,670,058 1,230,818 1.7% $87.16 10.2%
2016 F 74.5% $124.52 1,651,990 1,231,286 0.0% $92.77 6.4%
CAC 2010-2016 4.04% -0.06% 2.38% 6.56%
E-Estimate
F-Forecast
(1)Source:PKF"The 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast"
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;23;8/25/2016 Page/8318833
TABLE 24
PROJECTED MARKET AREA HOTEL DEMAND
MOORPARK MARKET OPPORTUNITITES
MOORPARK,CALIFORNIA
Potential Demand Simi Valley Market Area-2.0%Annual Increase
Market Area
Annual 2.0% Existing Target Occupancy-70%
Demand Room Night Occupancy Available Cumulative
Increase Supply' Level Room Nights Rooms
2016 158,962 207,320 76.7% 227,089 54
2021 175,507 207,320 84.7% 250,724 119
2026 193,774 207,320 93.5% 276,820 190
2031 213,942 207;320 103.2% 305,631 269
2036 236,209 207,320 113.9% 337,442 356
Potential Demand Simi Valley Market Area-3.0%Annual Increase
Market Area
Annual 3.0% Existing Target Occupancy-70%
Demand Room Night Occupancy Available Cumulative
Increase Supply' Level Room Nights Rooms
2016 158,962 207,320 76.7% 227,089 54
2021 184,281 207,320 88.9% 263,258 153
2026 213,632 207,320 103.0% 305,188 268
2031 247,658 207,320 119.5% 353,797 401
2036 287,103 207,320 138.5% 410,147 556
(1)Source: PKF'The 2016 Southern California Lodging Forecast"
-
Prepared by:Keyser Marston Associates,Inc.
Filename:Moorpark Market Tables-v4;24;8/25/2016 Page 29 of 33 1 3 4
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