HomeMy WebLinkAboutAGENDA REPORT 2017 0719 CCSA REG ITEM 10N ITEM 10.N.
CITY OF ry OORPAR(,CALIFORNIA
City Council Meeting
MOORPARK CITY COUNCILof
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AGENDA REPORT � e,.,:., — .— tit..V.-47
TO: The Honorable City Council
FROM: Jeremy Laurentowski, Parks and Recreation Director-51.,
PREPARED BY: Chris Ball, Management Analyst Ca3
DATE: July 12, 2017 (CC Meeting of 07/19/17)
SUBJECT: Consider Response to Final Report of the Ventura County
Grand Jury 2016-2017 on Water Considerations for Cities
BACKGROUND & DISCUSSION
On May 17, 2017 the Ventura County Grand Jury (Grand Jury) provided the City
Council and City Manager with a Final Report of its investigation entitled "Water
Considerations for Cities."
The Grand Jury report requires a response from the City Council on the findings and
recommendations within 90 days of receiving the report. A form was provided for the
response. Staff met with both Ventura County Waterworks District No. 1 (VCWWD) and
Calleguas Municipal Water District to collaboratively evaluate the findings of the report.
Responses prepared by VCWWD to specific conclusions and recommendations were
referenced in the City's response. Staff has provided the attached response to the
Grand Jury Report for City Council consideration.
STAFF RECOMMENDATION
1) Approve the response to the Grand Jury Report Findings and Recommendations
and authorize the Mayor to sign and submit the response to the Presiding Judge
of the Superior Court.
Attachment: Response to Grand Jury Report Form
445
Grp Jury
800 South Victoria Avenue
Ventura.CA 53008
l (805)477-1600
Fax(805)6584523
Response to Grand Jury Report Form
Report mks Water Considerations for Cities (Ventura County Grand Jury 2016 - 2017)
Report Date: May 17, 2017
Response by: Janice S. Parvin - Tide: Mayor, City of Moorpark
FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS
• I(we)agree with the findings/conclusions numbered: C-04, C-06
• I(we)disagree wholly or partially with the Findings I Conclusions numbered.
C-01, C-02, C-03, C-05, C-07
(Attach a statement specifying any portions of the Findings 1 Conclusions that are
disputed;include an explanation of the reasons.)
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Recommendations numbered R-01, R-04, R-05 have been implemented.
(Attach a summary desiring the implemented actions and date completed.)
• Recommendations number R-03 have not yet been implemented,but will be
implernented in the future.
(Attach a time frame for the implementation.)
• Recommendations numbered require further analysis.
• Recommendations numbered R-02 will not be implemented because they are
not warranted or are not reasonable.
Date: Signed:
Number of pages attached: 14
446
, ....9 CITY OF MOORPARK
pireure4
,,QS -.MP PARKS,RECREATION&COMMUNITY SERVICES DEPT. 1799 Moorpark Avenue,Moorpark,CA 9302
Main City Phone Number(805)517-6200 I Fax(805)532-2550 I moorpark@moorparkca.gov
July 19, 2017
The Honorable Patricia M. Murphy
Presiding Judge of the Superior Court
County of Ventura
800 South Victoria Avenue
Ventura, CA 93009
RE: Response to Grand Jury Report: Water Considerations for Cities
Dear Judge Murphy,
The City of Moorpark has received the 2016-2017 Grand Jury report titled "Water Consideration
for Cities". The City Council appreciates the efforts of the Grand Jury for its investigation into
whether Ventura County cities have adequately considered long-term water needs. In
accordance with Penal Code Section 933.05, the following reply is submitted in response to the
Grand Jury.
The City of Moorpark would like to note that it is not a water purveyor, instead relying on
Ventura County Waterworks District (VCWWD) No. 1 for municipal water provision within City
limits. The City collaborates closely with.VCWWD on issues related to water distribution,
conservation and planning. After review of the Grand Jury report by both the City of Moorpark
and VCWWD, the following required responses have been prepared collaboratively to address
Conclusions C-01 —C-07 and Recommendations R-01 — R-05:
CONCLUSIONS
C-01. Cities' water plans are based on historic water availability patterns which may no
longer be applicable. Over the last 100 years,water availability from precipitation
has been trending downward and may never return to water was considered
average.
Response: Partially disagree
Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are based on the best information available at the
time they are prepared. Projections of supplies and demands are based on historical trends,
future availability of existing or proposed sources of supply, environmental changes, regulatory
restrictions, per capita water use reductions, and other factors. UWMPs look forward 25 years,
but are revised every five years and adjusted as new information becomes available.
The Feather River Watershed in the northern Sierra serves as the headwaters for the California
State Water Project, which is the source of imported water for Ventura County Waterworks
District (VCWWD) No. 1, which is the water purveyor for City of Moorpark.
• Precipitation: Historical data on precipitation in the Feather River Watershed actually
shows a slightly increasing trend. Historical data for the Northern Sierra Precipitation 8-
station Index—an aggregate measurement of rainfall and snowpack water content—
447
JANICE S.PARVIN ROSEANN MIKOS,Ph.D. DAVID POLLOCK KEN SIMONS MARK VAN DAM
Mayor Councilmember Councilmember Councilmember Councilmember
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 2
reveals that since record keeping began in this critical region, the 20-year moving
average precipitation level has increased by over 21% from 44.1 inches in 1940 to 53.5
inches in 2017 (Exhibit 1).
• Snowpack: Historical data for snowpack in the Feather River Watershed shows a
slightly decreasing trend. The April 1 20-year moving average snowpack water content
for nine snow courses in the Feather River Watershed for which annual data has been
consistently recorded since 1930 has remained relatively steady. The most recent
preceding 40-year average (27.8 inches) is 92 percent of the initial preceding 40-year
average of 1969 (30.2 inches). The most recent 20-year moving average (27.3) is within
one inch of the initial 20-year moving average of 1949 (28 inches) (Exhibit 1).
We acknowledge that it is largely anticipated by climatologists that the Sierra snowpack is likely
to diminish over time as temperatures are expected to rise. However, the State Water Project
(SWP) and those agencies that receive water therefrom have the ability to deliver large
quantities of water falling as rain into surface reservoirs and groundwater basins statewide. For
example, over the winter months of 2017, SWP export pumps operated at full capacity for many
weeks for the first time in nearly one-quarter century due to heavy rainfall — not snowfall —in the
northern Sierra.
C-02. Cities' plans address the minimum, state-required, three-year drought scenarios.
None of the UWMPs address a long term drought, even though the current
drought has lasted over five years.
Response: Partially disagree.
The 2015 UWMPs were prepared in accordance with the state-required, three-year drought
scenarios, and it is expected that by the time the next UWMPs are prepared, the state will have
implemented a requirement for evaluation of five-year drought scenarios, with which VCWWD
No. 1 will comply.
VCWWD No. 1 benefits from the investment of Metropolitan Water District of Southern
California (Metropolitan) in storage and supply diversification projects and programs in
preparation for droughts. In the quarter century leading up to the recent drought, Metropolitan
built up a diverse portfolio of such supplies. They paid to line canals in the Imperial Valley and
stored the conserved water in Lake Mead. They built Diamond Valley Lake in Hemet and filled
it with water, more than doubling their storage capacity in southern California. They paid to
install aquifer storage and recovery wells in aquifers in the Central Valley and stored water in a
groundwater bank. They purchased land and entered into fallowing agreements with farmers
near Blythe so that they could use those farmers'water in urban southern California during dry
years.
During the recent drought, Metropolitan was able to deliver water from all of these supplies. In
addition, they reached out to water agencies and agricultural entities throughout the state to buy
excess (so-called "transfer") water and move it to southern California to preserve as much water
in storage as possible.
As a result of these varied supply reliability actions and programs, VCWWD No. 1 weathered
the recent five year drought with minimal effect on its residents and businesses.
C-03 Long term city plans are based on the optimistic view that there will be as much
water available in 2035 and 2040, as there was in 2010. Additional future water
448
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 3
resources are not well-defined other than being described as imported water or
coming from recycling and conservation efforts.
Response: Disagree.
Based on Metropolitan's multiple dry-year supply forecast through 2040, developed as part of its
2015 UWMP update process (Exhibit 2), Metropolitan anticipates having more than sufficient
supplies available to meet Calleguas purveyors' imported water demands as described in
Calleguas' 2015 UWMP. In addition, because of state regulatory actions to "make water
conservation a way of life", the demand for water in the future will likely be lower than
anticipated when the UWMPs were prepared in 2015, further improving the region's ability to
sustain lengthy shortages.
In addition, UWMPs will be updated four times between now and 2040, and will be adjusted
each time according to the best available information.
VCWWD No. l's 2015 UWMP does describe specific future water resources such as expanding
recycled water system, brackish groundwater desalination project, storm water capture and
groundwater recharge project.
C-04 Current and future ratepayers will bear the burden of the cost of building water
purification facilities, desalination plants, desalters, recycling plants, additional
pipelines, and storage facilities needed to ensure there is an adequate water supply
system in the future.
Response: Agree.
C-05 Since many cities in the County rely on MWD wholesale water, Cities should base
UWMPs on the wholesalers' prediction that retail water demand will outstrip total
reliable resources by 2040.
Response: Disagree.
This comment appears to be based on a misinterpretation of the "Do Nothing" case in
Metropolitan's 2015 Integrated Resources Plan Update (IRP) (Exhibit 3). This scenario
provides an assessment of what future water reliability would be with no additional actions or
investments in water supply or demand management. The "Do Nothing" analysis determines
whether additional developments that help to balance supplies and demands are needed to
ensure reliability into the future. As stated on page 6.0 of the IRP, "doing nothing is not an
option." This scenario simply serves as a reference point for long-term resource planning
purposes. In fact a multitude of supply and demand management projects and programs are
being or will be implemented, with varying degrees of certainty, to reliably meet future demands.
C-06 The UWMPs use different sources for analyzing past and future populations. The
inconsistency makes it difficult to compare plans, especially when cities have
multiple retail water providers. Some UWMPs even use different population
sources within the same report.
Response: Agree.
Population projections are done by local water agencies in coordination with cities with
consideration of proposed development projects and patterns. Some of these local water
•
449
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 4
agency boundaries match city boundaries, but more often they do not. So each population
projection must be customized to the area.
As provided in Final 2015 UWMP Guidebook for Urban Water Suppliers, Page 3-7:
"The CWC[California Water Code]does not require a specific methodology for projecting
future populations, but it does require that the estimates of future population be based upon
data from State, regional, or local service agency population projections. Include the
source(s) used to estimate the population projections (2020, 2025 etc...)."
The past populations are based on census data published by the federal agency as required by
the State for 2015 UWMP.
C-07 Cities' water plans do not appear to address catastrophic failures or interruptions
within the system, such as:
• Infrastructure failures (dams)
• Major earthquake destruction
• Damage to groundwater
o Saltwater intrusion
o Environmental disasters (oil or chemical spills)
Response: Disagree.
Plans to address water supply emergencies and groundwater quality exist, but are done outside
the UWMP process.
City of Moorpark's water suppliers, VCWWD No. 1 and Calleguas Municipal Water District
(Calleguas), have developed an Emergency Water Supply Plan that addresses availability of
water supply during an outage of imported water. The plan is Appendix G of the Calleguas'
2015 UMWP, which may be found at
http://www.callequas.com/documents-and-reports/
City of Moorpark and VCWWD No. 1 participate with nine of the ten Ventura County cities, the
County, and several water agencies (including Calleguas Municipal Water District) every five
years to develop a new Ventura County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, most recently for a
September 2015 update. This Plan assesses the risks posed by natural and human-caused
hazards and establishes a mitigation strategy for reducing these risks. Hazards addressed
include climate change, dam failure, drought, earthquake, flood, landslide, tsunami, and wildfire.
The plan may be found at
http://www.vcfloodinfo.com/pdf/2015%20Ventura%20County%20M ulti-
Hazard%20Mitigation%20Plan%20and%20Appendices.pdf.
Planning for management of groundwater water quality basin quality is primarily done by two
agencies. The Los Angeles Regional Water Quality Control Board regulates groundwater
quality through its Basin Plan. The plan may be found at
http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/losangeles/water issues/programs/basin plan/basin plan docu
mentation.shtml. The Basin Plan regulates the local cities and agencies to meet the various
groundwater qualities objectives in the Basin. The Fox Canyon Groundwater Management
Agency is currently preparing a Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) in accordance with the
2014 California Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. The GSP will specify measures to
manage the local groundwater aquifer and resources in sustainable ways to maintain the
groundwater levels and quantities. In any case, groundwater quality events such as seawater
intrusion develop slowly and most water supplies in Ventura County are protected from
contaminant spills because the aquifers are largely covered with an impermeable clay cap.
450
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 5
RECOMMENDATIONS
R-01 The Grand Jury recommends the 10 city councils collaborate with all the County
water purveyors to develop long-term plans to respond to catastrophic
interruptions of water supplies.
Response: Has been implemented.
VCWWD No. 1 collaborates with Calleguas to invest in storage and supply diversification
projects and programs in preparation for emergency interruptions of imported supplies.
Calleguas' Emergency Water Supply Plan (EWSP) describes existing vulnerabilities, their
potential disruption of water service, and what could be done to improve reliability. The 2014
plan was developed jointly with retail water agencies serving six of the cities, including City of
Moorpark and VCWWD No. 1, through a series of group workshops and meetings with
individual agencies beginning in 2010. The EWSP provides a basis for the Calleguas' Board of
Directors, staff, and member purveyors to determine the most appropriate courses of action to
best safeguard water supply reliability service area-wide.
The EWSP describes two local supplies that Calleguas built to provide water in the event of a
catastrophic disruption of imported supply: Lake Bard (completed in the 1960s) and the Las
Posas Aquifer Storage and Recovery Project (completed in 2007). Lake Bard is located on the
border of Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks and, in conjunction with the Lake Bard Water
Filtration Plant, provides water to Calleguas customers during outages of imported supplies.
The Las Posas Aquifer Storage and Recovery Project is comprised of 18 dual purpose injection-
extraction wells. Imported water is stored in Lake Bard and in the Las Posas Groundwater
Basin so that it can be put to use during outages of imported supply. These supplies can meet
the normal demands of the Calleguas service area for approximately one month or health and
safety demands for a longer period.
Calleguas is actively working to improve the area's supply portfolio to improve reliability in an
emergency as follows.
• Construction of interconnections with Crestview Mutual Water Company (by 2019), Las
Virgenes Municipal Water District (by 2021), and the City of Ventura (by 2022).
• Construction of projects to earthquake-proof and pro-actively strengthen key at risk
infrastructure (ongoing, with over$100 million invested since 1997).
• Construction of a Salinity Management Pipeline phases to enable development of local
groundwater desalters (completed from Port Hueneme to Somis in 2016, to be extended to
Moorpark, Santa Rosa Valley, and Simi Valley by 2023).
• Preparation of a Water Supply Alternatives Study to evaluate the most cost effective and
reliable additional projects to improve emergency supply reliability (initial phase to be
complete in 2017, further project analysis and implementation thereafter).
City of Moorpark and VCWWD No. 1 collaborate to prepare for catastrophic outages of water
supply with all ten cities in the county through the County's Office of Emergency Services
(OES), the Association of Water Agencies of Ventura County (AWAVC), and the Watersheds
Coalition of Ventura County (WCVC).
• The OES is responsible for countywide disaster planning, mitigation, response and recovery
activities. OES staff maintains the office of emergency services where coordinated
emergency response takes place and holds regular drills with the cities and water agencies
to simulate and prepare for emergencies.
• AWAVC holds dozens of meetings each year of water-related topics, including supply
diversification and reliability.
451
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 6
• WCVC is responsible for preparing and updating a state-mandated Integrated Water
Resources Plan identifying projects that diversify supply portfolios.
VCWWD No. 1 also collaborates with the other five cities in southern Ventura County at monthly
meetings held at Calleguas' offices. Topics are water-related and include discussion of projects
to diversify the area's water supply portfolio and improve emergency supply reliability.
R-02 The Grand Jury recommends the 10 city councils use the same data source when
making population projections.
Response: Will not be implemented.
Future population projections are done by local water agencies in coordination with cities with
consideration of proposed development projects and patterns. Some of these local water
agency boundaries match city boundaries, but often they do not. Each population projection
must be customized to the area. Use of a larger scale population projection metric would be
less accurate than the location-specific population projection methodology currently in use.
The past populations are based on census data published by the federal agency as required by
the State for 2015 UWMP.
R-03 The Grand Jury recommends the 10 city councils develop drought plans that
extend at least 5 years.
Response: Will be implemented.
The state is expected to require that water agencies prepare a plan to prepare for five-year
droughts consistent Governor Brown's May 2016 Executive Order B-37-16, Making Water
Conservation a Way of Life, which specifies in Action No. 8 that: "These updated requirements
shall include adequate actions to respond to droughts lasting at least five years, as well as more
frequent and severe periods of drought." It is expected that a five-year drought plan will be
required in 2020 UWMPs.
R-04 The Grand Jury recommends the 10 city councils extend drought conservation
measures during non-drought years.
Response: Has been implemented.
Consistent with the Governor's call to "Make Water Conservation a Way of Life," all cities have
implemented the following permanent water use efficiency measures:
• Sidewalks, driveways, and other hardscapes are not to be cleaned with a hose.
• Automobiles may only be washed with a hose equipped with a shut-off nozzle.
• Water in fountains or other decorative features must be recirculated.
• Lawns must not be watered in a manner that causes runoff
• There is no outdoor irrigation within 48 hours of measurable precipitation.
• There is no irrigation of ornamental turf in public street medians.
In addition VCWWD No. 1 has required the following additional permanent measures:
452
Response to Grand Jury Report
"Water Considerations for Cities"
Page 7
• Regulation retains penalties for homeowners' associations or community service
organizations impeding homeowners from reducing or eliminating the watering of vegetation
of lawns.
• Maintains reporting requirements to the State and enforcement tools to ensure compliance
with the provisions or the regulations.
R-05 The Grand Jury recommends the 10 city councils ensure all future water
availability plans clearly identify any potential water sources that are based on
unfunded or unpermitted infrastructure.
Response: Has been implemented.
VCVVVVD No. 1 relies upon imported water to meet new demands. Metropolitan's and
Calleguas' 2015 UWMPs state that there are more than sufficient supplies to meet anticipated
demands, including new development, through 2040. The vast majority of these supplies
already exist, and new supplies projects are typically budgeted and funded through the water
rates planning and assessment. The new supplies projects are typically not permitted until very
shortly before they are developed. It is the nature of water supply project development that
approval and funding cannot be assured until a project has been fully analyzed and well-
defined, often with environmental documents and certain permits complete. However, new
water supplies could come from a variety of sources: highly treated wastewater converted for
potable use, brackish groundwater desalination treatment, agriculture to urban water transfers,
or seawater desalination, to name a few. If one alternative proves infeasible, another can, and
will, be implemented.
SUMMARY
The City of Moorpark wishes to thank the Grand Jury for its time in performing their review.
Signed: Date:
Janice S. Parvin, Mayor
Attachments:
Exhibit 1: Feather River Watershed Historical Data
Exhibit 2: Metropolitan Water District Multiple Dry Year Supply Forecast
Exhibit 3: Excerpts from Metropolitan Water District Integrated Water Resources Plan
C: Foreperson, Ventura County Grand Jury
City Council
City Manager
City Attorney
Deputy City Manager
453
Northern Sierra Precipitation - 8 Station Index
(Station IDs within Feather River Watershed: QRD, BCM, SRR)
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1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1961 1966 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Water Year
-..-Total Precip ••••Historical Average —20-year Moving Average
Source: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/precipl/8STATIONHIST
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Historical April 1 Snowpack Water Content - Feather River Watershed
Avwragr of Station IN(EI•v.(_lip 48,2501 MOV(7,1001 31.1(46,250'4,10F(6,2001,MIF 45,9001,MSV(5,600'),FFM 15,400'4,WRN(5,100'),CHF(4,600')
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1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 ]965 1970 1975 1980 1985 :990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
--April 1 Level ••••Historical Average Preceding 40-year Average IIMM'20-year Moving Average
Sources: Sean DeGuzman, Water Resources Engineer, CA Dept. of Water Resources,Snow Surveys
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryWY
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Exhibit 2
Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
2015 UWMP
Table 2-5
Multiple Dry-Year
Supply Capability' and Projected Demands
Repeat of 1990-1992 Hydrology
(Acre-feet per year)
Forecast Year 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Current Programs
In-Region Supplies and Programs 239,000 272,000 303,000 346,000 364,000
California Aqueduct2 664,000 682,000 687,000 696,000 696,000
Colorado River Aqueduct
Total Supply Available3 1,403,000 1,691,000 1,690,000 1,689,000 1,605,000
Aqueduct Capacity Limit4 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000
Colorado River Aqueduct Capability 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000
Capability of Current Programs 2,103,000 2,154,000 2,190,000 2,242,000 2,260,000
Demands
Total Demands on Metropolitan 1,727,000 1,836,000 1,889,000 1,934,000 1,976,000
IID-SDCWA Transfers and Canal Linings 274,000 282,000 282,000 282,000 282,000
Total Metropolitan Deliveries5 2,001,000 2,118,000 2,171,000 2,216,000 2,258,000
Surplus 102,000 36,000 19,000 26,000 2,000
Programs Under Development
In-Region Supplies and Programs 36,000 73,000 110,000 151,000 192,000
California Aqueduct 7,000 7,000 94,000 94,000 94,000
Colorado River Aqueduct
Total Supply Available3 80,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 25,000
Aqueduct Capacity Limit4 0 0 0 0 0
Colorado River Aqueduct Capability 0 0 0 0 0
Capability of Proposed Programs 43,000 80,000 204,000 245,000 286,000
Potential Surplus 145,000 116,000 223,000 271,000 288,000
1 Represents Supply Capability for resource programs under listed year type.
2 California Aqueduct includes Central Valley transfers and storage program supplies conveyed by the aqueduct.
3 Colorado River Aqueduct includes programs,IID-SDCWA transfer and exchange and canal linings conveyed by
the aqueduct.
4 Maximum CRA deliveries limited to 1.20 MAF including IID-SDCWA transfer and exchange and canal linings.
5 Total demands are adjusted to include IID-SDCWA transfer and exchange and canal linings. These supplies are
calculated as local supply,but need to be shown for the purposes of CRA capacity limit calculations without
double counting.
2-1 6 WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY
456
Exhibit 3
Excerpts from Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Integrated Water Resources Plan
WATER OTOMORROW
Intes rated Water Resources Plan
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457
COLORADO RIVER AQUEDUCT SUPPLY FORECAST
In addition to its Fourth and Fifth Priority entitlements from the CRA,Metropolitan has access to a number of
other supply and conservation programs;these programs are described earlier in this report.Programs such as the
IID/Metropolitan Conservation Program provide supplies in all years,regardless of hydrology,and are considered base
supply programs.Other programs such as the PVID program and Intentionally Created Surplus provide flexibility in
different year types.These flexible programs work in conjunction with the base supply programs to manage water into
storage in wet years,and provide additional supply in dry years.The following table shows the forecast of base CRA
supply programs over the forecast period. Some of these supplies are expected to change over time,and these changes
are reflected in the table.The flexible supplies are not shown in the table.Additional information on the specific CRA
modeling studies and assumptions used in this analysis can be found in Appendix 10.
TABLE 3-8
Forecast of Colorado River Aqueduct Base Supplies and Adjustments (Acre-Feet)
CRA 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Basic Apportionment 550,000 550,000 550,000 550,000 550,000 550,000
Present Perfected Rights -2,000 -2,000 -2,000 -2,000 -2,000 -2,000
SNWA Return Obligations 0 0 0 0 -5,000 -10,000
IID-MWD Conservation Program 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 ( 85,000 85,000
Palo Verde Program Minimum 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
IID-SDCWA Transfer and Exchange 100,000 193,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
Canal Lining Projects SDCWA 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
Canal Lining Projects 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000
Lower Colorado Water Supply Project 8,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Total Base Supply Programs 867,000 960,000 966,000 965,000 959,000 953,000
Remaining \eed: The Regional Water Balance
The first step in determining the remaining need is to evaluate the balance of existing levels of supplies against future
projections of demands.Constructing a"Do Nothing"water balance provides a picture of what future reliability would
look like with no additional actions or investments in water supply or demand management.The"Do Nothing"analysis
determines whether additional developments that help to balance supplies and demands are needed to ensure reliability
into the future.This look at the regional water balance incorporates all of the forecasts of demands and supplies
described previously in this report.
458
about 75,000 acre-feet up to almost 4.5 million acre-feet. When evaluated against the metric of low storage,which
is defined as regional dry-year storage levels below 1.0 million acre-feet,the results show that 12 percent of the time
storage would be below the low storage metric.This equates to the region facing a 12 percent chance of implementing
Metropolitan's WSAP in 2020.
In a similar fashion to the reliability results shown above, Figure 3-6 summarizes the probabilities of implementing
supply allocations in 5 year increments.The shaded orange area in Figure 3-6 corresponds to the 12 percent chance
of allocation shown below for the year 2020.These results show that the probability of supply allocation increases
dramatically over time under the"Do Nothing°case, reaching an 80 percent likelihood in 2040.
FIGURE 3-6
Summary of Allocation Probabilities Under the "Do Nothing" Case'
2020 12% ..` .:�_ •
.,. 88%
2025 18% 82%
re
w
w
>-
v)
a 2030 36% 64%
0 2035 �... 55% 45%
2040 80% 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FREQUENCY
'IRPSIM results represent 91 modeled outcomes based on weather/climate and hydrology from 1922-2012
This is intended to be an indicator of reliability.
WATER BALANCE CONCLUSIONS: NEED TO TAKE ACTION
The-Do Nothing'water balance clearly illustrates how if Southern California stopped adapting and relied only
upon on its existing supply assets and current achievements in conservation,shortages and implementation of
Metropolitan's WSAP would likely occur in an unacceptable level of frequency in the years ahead.This finding is a
reminder that working to maintain a reliable water system is never done. In this case, "doing nothing'and making
no further investments in water supply and demand management would impose a huge cost on all Southern
Californians.The same shortage conditions facing the region in the early 1990s,in 2009-2010,and this year,with
imposed fines and penalties for exceeding water use limits,would occur a large percentage of the time.That
potential threat of unreliability is too great to ignore; in order to achieve levels of high reliability, significant water
supply and conservation investments will be needed.
4 5'9
6 ■
Findings and Conclusions
Metropolitan's tradition of providing reliable supplies to a growing,dynamic region will be put to the
test with the challenges that undoubtedly lie ahead.Yet Metropolitan's ability to make key investments
at the right time,and to adapt to ever-changing circumstances,provide confidence that a reliable water
portfolio will continue to be maintained as events unfold.
Several findings and conclusions have emerged as particularly important in this 2015 IRP Update process,
Action is Needed
Without the investments in conservation,local supplies and the California WaterFix targeted in the 2015
iRP Update,shortages and implementation of iMietropoiitan's WSAP would likely occur in an unacceptable
level of frequency in the years ahead. Modeling results show that under a"Do Nothing"case,the
probability of supply allocation increases dramatically over time,reaching an 80 percent likelihood in
2040. Doing nothing is not an option.
FIGURE 6-1
Summary of Allocation Probabilities Under the "Do Nothing" Case'
2020 12% 88%
2025 18% 82%
re
u,
2030 36% 64%
0 2035 55% 45%
2040 80% 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FREQUENCY
1IRPSIM results represent 91 modeled outcomes based on weather/climate and hydrology horn 1922-2012.
This is intended to be an indicator of reliability.
460