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Home My WebLink AboutAGENDA REPORT 1995 0719 CC REG ITEM 08HITEMA A G E N D A R E P O R T C I T Y OF M O O R P A R K TO: The Honorable City Council FROM: Jaime Aguilera, Director of Community Developmelfie Deborah S. Traffenstedt, Senior Planner DATE: July 10, 1995 (CC Meeting of 7- 19 -95) SUBJECT: CONSIDER YEAR 2020 POPULATION, DWELLING UNIT, AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS FOR THE CITY OF MOORPARK Background On June 27, 1995, the City received a letter from Ventura Council of Governments (VCOG) and County Planning Division staff requesting that all cities submit Year 2020 population, housing, and employment forecasts to VCOG staff by July 6, 1995. City Community Development Department staff provided a response to VCOG staff on July 6 (Attachment 1), but requested the opportunity to review and comment on any population, housing, or employment forecast developed by County staff for the City. On July 10, the City was provided a copy of draft forecast figures (Attachment 2) that are to be provided to VCOG on July 20, 1995. Staff does intend to request minor revisions as discussed below. Discussion Staff has reviewed the draft forecasts proposed to be presented to VCOG on July 20, 1995. The total number of dwelling units shown for the City for the Year 2020 is 16,438, which is consistent with the direction given in our July 6 letter (this number includes development within Specific Plan No. 8, which is assumed to have been annexed into the City). As shown on Page 1 of Attachment 2, the Moorpark Growth Area has a slightly higher dwelling unit and population forecast than the City limits, with 16,919 dwelling units in the Year 2020. Based on land use buildout calculations done for the City's Traffic Model for the Year 2010, if all of the property within the City's Area of Interest built out (per the General Plan designations of the City and County), there could be a total of approximately 661 dwelling units located outside of the City limits, but within the City's Area of Interest. Subtracting the 16,438 dwelling units within the City, from the 16,919 dwelling units assumed for the entire Moorpark Growth Area, equals 481 dwelling units. Adding the 180 Moorpark Non - Growth Area units to the 481 Moorpark Growth Area units gives a total of 661 dwelling units, which is consistent with the Moorpark Traffic Model assumptions. Staff will continue to work with the County on the dwelling unit assumptions for the Years 2010 and 2015. The Honorable City Council July 10, 1995 Page 2 The projected population of 52,930 for the City for the Year 2020 was derived from the dwelling unit forecast of 16,438 and a population per dwelling unit ratio of 3.22. The population per dwelling unit ratios shown for Moorpark for the years 2000 and 2010 are higher than those previously adopted by VCOG in 1993. For example, the prior VCOG adopted dwelling unit forecast for the year 2010 was 3.03. The attached 2020 forecast shows a 3.26 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2010, 3.24 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2015, and 3.22 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2020. Using a higher population per dwelling unit results in a higher overall population forecast. At the time of the General Plan Land Use Element Update in 1992, the City used the Countywide Planning Program population per dwelling unit ratio of 2.74 to calculate the projected City population at General Plan buildout. The City's actual population per dwelling unit has been calculated by the State Department of Finance to be approximately 3.4 for the past ten years. Therefore, the revised population per dwelling unit forecasts would appear to be more accurate, in comparison to the lower projections that were previously used. In addition to dwelling unit and population forecasts, Attachment 2 also includes future year employment forecasts. Staff will continue to work with the County on the employment forecasts to ensure that potential employment opportunities within the Specific Plan areas are accurately estimates'. Recommendation Approve Year 2020 dwelling unit forecast for the City of Moorpark and Moorpark Growth and Non - Growth Areas, and authorize staff to continue to work with County Planning staff to develop and finalize Year 2020 population and employment forecasts and any revisions to Year 2010 and 2015 forecasts. Attachments: 1. Letter to John Sullard, VCOG, dated 7 -6 -95 2. Draft Forecasts dated 7 -9 -95 UT X16, (99 Moorpark Avenue Moorpark, California 93021 (805) 529 -6864 July 6, 1995 John Sullard VCOG 950 County Square Drive Suite 207 Ventura, CA 93003 SUBJECT: YEAR 2015 AND 2020 POPUI..ATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Dear Mr. Sullard: Your letter requesting that all cities submit Year 2015 and Year 2020 population, housing, and employment forecasts to VCOG staff by July 6, 1995, was not received until June 27, 1995. We were unable to schedule this matter for City Council consideration in the very short time period allowed for our response. For your information, on September 14, 1994, the City Council discussed a request from VCTC staff that the City provide land use assumptions for a year 2015 County of Ventura Traffic Model. The Council determined that the land use assumptions for the year 2010 Moorpark Traffic Analysis Model should be used for the Year 2015 Ventura County Traffic Model, with a revision to reflect a General Plan amendment for the Carlsberg Specific Plan area that was approved on September 7, 1994. That General Plan amendment revised the City Land Use Plan, and added 6.5 acres of subregional commercial /business park uses and 147 dwelling units. We notified VCTC staff by letter dated September 15,, 19941 of the City Council's direction. The City's General Plan Land Use Element (as amended in September 1994) would allow for a "maximum density,, of 15,058 dwelling units. Language in the Land Use Element does allow the City Council to approve a density exceeding the "maximum density % up to an identified "density :limit ", for five new specific plan areas, based on the public benefit provided. If the "density limit" is approved for the five specific plan areas, the total dwelling units would increase from 15,058 to 16,438. For the VCOG Year 2015 housing unit forecast, it would be appropriate to use the City's higher "density limit" forecast for total dwelling units (i.e., 16,438 dwelling units). Since we do not have authorization from the City Council to provide different forecast numbers for the Year 2020, I am recommending that the Year 2020 dwelling unit forecast be consistent with our recommendation for Year 2015. PAUL W. LAWRASON JR. BERNARDO M. PEREZ PATRICK HUNT EP T�❑ Mayor Mayor PrSCOTT MONTGOMERY �� ruuncilmemrr •r JOHN E. WOZNIAK ,ouncilmember Councilmember 0M'SS John Sullard July 6, 1995 Page 2 For the population forecast, the City typically uses the number of persons per household calculated in conjunction with development of regional forecasts, such as the Countywide Forecasts adopted by VCOG on May 24, 1993. We would also defer to the County for development of employment forecasts for the City of Moorpark. We are requesting, however, the opportunity to review and comment on any population, housing, or employment forecast developed by County staff for the City of Moorpark. If submittal to SCAG will occur before City review of projections, we concur that a disclaimer should be included in the submittal to SCAG for any trendline projection made by County staff for the City of Moorpark. If you have any questions regarding the information provided in this letter, please contact Deborah Traffenstedt at extension 236. Sincerely, yT -` R. ' g A uilera irector of Community Development JRA /DST cc: Steven Kueny, City Manager Steve Wood, County Planning L #1740, Ventura, CA 93009 Division, 800 S. Victoria Avenue, otr[wss JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :14 County of Ventura ftoninq Division W S. Victoria Ave. Venture, CA 93009 (SM) 664 -4478 (/M) 034 -2609 (FAX) P, 01 T R A N S M I T T A L THIS FAX IS FROM THE COUNTY OF VENTURA PLANNING DIVISION. PLEASE NOTIFY OUR OFFICE AT THE PHONE NUMBER INDICATED FOR ANY DISCREPENCIES. TO. �J ► we �ivc �rz FAX s: - 5 Z!? - 9 z 70 FROM: c GGbod _ — DATE: 7 l 0 9S"� — TIME: - PAGES (including cover ghost): _ 57 SUBJECT: yi c- C.7_ asl " -- COMMENTS. <- u rc �J(A(W 2-0 I le S, if Wm Aokx— PLEASE NOTIFY RECIPIENT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE JUL 10 195 07:19 PAGE.00i 11MIN JUL -10 -95 MON 8:15 vcoo 2020 population Forecast P. 03 (Nymbom )n Parsnthosu)=CRy Numbers 0000b!) JUL 10 '95 07:20 PAGE.003 JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :15 VC1'C gM pwe#ing Unit FMC8*t P. 04 (Numberm In Parmth- of"P- CRY Numb"s VCTC bums JUL 10 195 07:21 PAGE.004 ?AN JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :16 VCOG 2020 Employment Foreca0t plumbers In Prronthvvvs) -City Nambe- CM+FMp.XLS P. 05 U0()U�).j JUL 10 195 07:22 PAGE.005 7)"ff