The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutAGENDA REPORT 1995 0719 CC REG ITEM 08HThe Honorable City Council July 10, 1995 Page 2 The projected population of 52,930 for the City for the Year 2020 was derived from the dwelling unit forecast of 16,438 and a population per dwelling unit ratio of 3.22. The population per dwelling unit ratios shown for Moorpark for the years 2000 and 2010 are higher than those previously adopted by VCOG in 1993. For example, the prior VCOG adopted dwelling unit forecast for the year 2010 was 3.03. The attached 2020 forecast shows a 3.26 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2010, 3.24 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2015, and 3.22 population per dwelling unit ratio for the Year 2020. Using a higher population per dwelling unit results in a higher overall population forecast. At the time of the General Plan Land Use Element Update in 1992, the City used the Countywide Planning Program population per dwelling unit ratio of 2.74 to calculate the projected City population at General Plan buildout. The City's actual population per dwelling unit has been calculated by the State Department of Finance to be approximately 3.4 for the past ten years. Therefore, the revised population per dwelling unit forecasts would appear to be more accurate, in comparison to the lower projections that were previously used. In addition to dwelling unit and population forecasts, Attachment 2 also includes future year employment forecasts. Staff will continue to work with the County on the employment forecasts to ensure that potential employment opportunities within the Specific Plan areas are accurately estimates'. Recommendation Approve Year 2020 dwelling unit forecast for the City of Moorpark and Moorpark Growth and Non - Growth Areas, and authorize staff to continue to work with County Planning staff to develop and finalize Year 2020 population and employment forecasts and any revisions to Year 2010 and 2015 forecasts. Attachments: 1. Letter to John Sullard, VCOG, dated 7 -6 -95 2. Draft Forecasts dated 7 -9 -95 UT X16, 99 Moorpark Avenue Moorpark, California 93021 (805) 529 -6864 July 6, 1995 John Sullard VCOG 950 County Square Drive Suite 207 Ventura, CA 93003 SUBJECT: YEAR 2015 AND 2020 POPUI..ATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENTFORECASTS Dear Mr. Sullard: Your letter requesting that all cities submit Year 2015 and Year2020population, housing, and employment forecasts to VCOG staff byJuly6, 1995, was not received until June 27, 1995. We were unabletoschedulethismatterforCityCouncilconsiderationintheveryshorttimeperiodallowedforourresponse. For your information, on September 14, 1994, the City CouncildiscussedarequestfromVCTCstaffthattheCityprovidelanduseassumptionsforayear2015CountyofVenturaTrafficModel. TheCouncildeterminedthatthelanduseassumptionsfortheyear2010MoorparkTrafficAnalysisModelshouldbeusedfortheYear2015VenturaCountyTrafficModel, with a revision to reflect a GeneralPlanamendmentfortheCarlsbergSpecificPlanareathatwasapprovedonSeptember7, 1994. That General Plan amendment revisedtheCityLandUsePlan, and added 6.5 acres of subregionalcommercial /business park uses and 147 dwelling units. We notifiedVCTCstaffbyletterdatedSeptember15,, 19941 of the CityCouncil's direction. The City's General Plan Land Use Element (as amended in September1994) would allow for a "maximum density,, of 15,058 dwelling units. Language in the Land Use Element does allow the City Council toapproveadensityexceedingthe "maximum density % up to anidentified "density :limit ", for five new specific plan areas, basedonthepublicbenefitprovided. If the "density limit" is approvedforthefivespecificplanareas, the total dwelling units wouldincreasefrom15,058 to 16,438. For the VCOG Year 2015 housingunitforecast, it would be appropriate to use the City's higherdensitylimit" forecast for total dwelling units (i.e., 16,438dwellingunits). Since we do not have authorization from the CityCounciltoprovidedifferentforecastnumbersfortheYear2020, IamrecommendingthattheYear2020dwellingunitforecastbeconsistentwithourrecommendationforYear2015. PAUL W. LAWRASON JR. BERNARDO M. PEREZ PATRICK HUNT EP T Mayor Mayor PrSCOTT MONTGOMERYruuncilmemrr •r JOHN E. WOZNIAK ouncilmember Councilmember 0M'SS John Sullard July 6, 1995 Page 2 For the population forecast, the City typically uses the number of persons per household calculated in conjunction with development of regional forecasts, such as the Countywide Forecasts adopted byVCOGonMay24, 1993. We would also defer to the County for development of employment forecasts for the City of Moorpark. We are requesting, however, the opportunity to review and comment on any population, housing, or employment forecast developed by CountystafffortheCityofMoorpark. If submittal to SCAG will occurbeforeCityreviewofprojections, we concur that a disclaimershouldbeincludedinthesubmittaltoSCAGforanytrendline projection made by County staff for the City of Moorpark. If you have any questions regarding the information provided inthisletter, please contact Deborah Traffenstedt at extension 236. Sincerely, yT -` R. ' gAuilera irector of Community Development JRA /DST cc: Steven Kueny, City Manager Steve Wood, County Planning L #1740, Ventura, CA 93009 Division, 800 S. Victoria Avenue, otr[wss JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :14 County of Ventura ftoninq Division W S. Victoria Ave. Venture, CA 93009 SM) 664 -4478 M) 034 -2609 (FAX) P, 01 T R A N S M I T T A L THIS FAX IS FROM THE COUNTY OF VENTURA PLANNING DIVISION. PLEASE NOTIFY OUR OFFICE AT THE PHONE NUMBER INDICATED FOR ANY DISCREPENCIES. TO. J we ivc rz FAX s: - 5 Z!? - 9 z 70 FROM: c GGbod _ — DATE: 7 l 0 9S" — TIME: - PAGES (including cover ghost): _ 57 SUBJECT: yic- C.7_ asl " -- COMMENTS. <- u rc J(A(W 2-0 I le S, if Wm Aokx— PLEASE NOTIFY RECIPIENT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE JUL 10 195 07:19 PAGE.00i 11MIN JUL -10 -95 MON 8:15 vcoo 2020 population Forecast P. 03 Nymbom )n Parsnthosu)=CRy Numbers 0000b!) JUL 10 '95 07:20 PAGE.003 JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :15 VC1'C gM pwe#ing Unit FMC8*t P. 04 Numberm In Parmth- of"P- CRY Numb"s VCTC bums JUL 10 195 07:21 PAGE.004 AN JUL -10 -95 MON 8 :16 VCOG 2020 Employment Foreca0t plumbers In Prronthvvvs) -City Nambe- CM+FMp.XLS P. 05 U0()U).j JUL 10 195 07:22 PAGE.005 7)"ff